Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.351
Median1.104
Mean3.589
75% Quartile3.309
Interquartile Range2.958

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.822
227.399
322.666
419.228
516.949
614.145
712.414
810.964
99.664
108.778
118.097
127.399
136.904
146.437
155.955
165.594
175.197
184.816
194.501
204.265
214.046
223.814
233.658
243.440
253.309
263.200
273.039
282.915
292.777
302.631
312.502
322.377
332.282
342.190
352.070
361.977
371.888
381.807
391.743
401.662
411.585
421.530
431.485
441.425
451.372
461.315
471.264
481.200
491.153
501.104
511.061
521.019
530.971
540.926
550.883
560.832
570.803
580.774
590.743
600.704
610.666
620.639
630.615
640.586
650.563
660.541
670.521
680.496
690.470
700.452
710.429
720.410
730.389
740.371
750.351
760.334
770.316
780.299
790.284
800.265
810.247
820.231
830.213
840.199
850.187
860.171
870.155
880.143
890.129
900.114
910.101
920.086
930.071
940.054
950.042
960.030
970.013
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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