Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels



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Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.373
Median1.503
Mean5.535
75% Quartile5.759
Interquartile Range5.387

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.720
238.067
333.918
430.533
528.049
624.645
722.300
820.160
918.087
1016.581
1115.369
1214.078
1313.134
1412.220
1511.258
1610.525
179.707
188.917
198.257
207.761
217.302
226.814
236.488
246.033
255.760
265.532
275.199
284.946
294.663
304.367
314.109
323.859
333.670
343.492
353.258
363.080
372.910
382.758
392.638
402.486
412.346
422.247
432.165
442.057
451.964
461.863
471.775
481.665
491.586
501.503
511.431
521.361
531.283
541.211
551.142
561.061
571.016
580.971
590.924
600.865
610.808
620.769
630.733
640.691
650.660
660.628
670.600
680.565
690.530
700.506
710.474
720.449
730.422
740.398
750.373
760.351
770.328
780.308
790.289
800.266
810.245
820.227
830.206
840.190
850.177
860.159
870.143
880.130
890.115
900.100
910.087
920.072
930.058
940.043
950.033
960.022
970.009
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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