Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jun0.5270.2180.5820.0000.2044.267
Jun-Jul1.0590.4580.8750.0000.32316.228
Jun-Aug1.3160.5441.0430.0000.38317.188

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.2883.088
201.9171.539
301.2690.964
400.8820.617
500.6240.413
600.4490.264
700.3130.169
800.1890.097
900.0890.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.18814.320
27.8049.362
36.4507.761
45.5426.605
54.9885.840
64.6084.898
74.1544.316
83.8073.828
93.4963.389
103.2883.088
113.1202.857
122.9152.619
132.7762.450
142.6162.289
152.4512.124
162.3402.000
172.2251.862
182.0791.730
191.9911.621
201.9171.539
211.8031.462
221.7321.381
231.6571.327
241.5921.250
251.5201.204
261.4741.165
271.4121.109
281.3701.065
291.3211.016
301.2690.964
311.2200.918
321.1780.874
331.1320.840
341.0880.807
351.0440.764
361.0040.730
370.9700.698
380.9340.669
390.9060.646
400.8820.617
410.8470.589
420.8230.569
430.8010.553
440.7750.531
450.7560.511
460.7290.490
470.6960.472
480.6720.448
490.6460.431
500.6240.413
510.6060.397
520.5850.382
530.5600.364
540.5420.347
550.5280.331
560.5100.312
570.4920.301
580.4740.291
590.4590.279
600.4490.264
610.4350.250
620.4190.240
630.4060.231
640.3910.220
650.3770.212
660.3640.203
670.3520.196
680.3400.186
690.3260.176
700.3130.169
710.2990.160
720.2860.153
730.2710.145
740.2570.138
750.2460.130
760.2310.124
770.2190.117
780.2070.110
790.1980.105
800.1890.097
810.1790.090
820.1690.084
830.1590.077
840.1450.071
850.1360.067
860.1290.060
870.1190.054
880.1090.049
890.1000.044
900.0890.038
910.0820.032
920.0720.026
930.0620.020
940.0520.013
950.0410.009
960.0290.003
970.0180.000
980.0050.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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