Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jul0.5320.2410.2920.0000.11911.962
Jul-Aug0.7880.3260.4610.0000.17912.922
Jul-Sep0.9190.3690.5400.0000.22513.270

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.7342.171
201.7071.071
301.1610.668
400.8360.425
500.6210.284
600.4570.181
700.3270.115
800.2110.066
900.1170.025

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.20310.665
26.4436.799
35.2515.590
44.5954.728
54.1844.164
63.7193.476
73.4143.054
83.0972.701
92.8742.386
102.7342.171
112.5812.005
122.4411.836
132.3081.716
142.2121.602
152.1271.485
162.0201.397
171.9271.299
181.8551.206
191.7821.129
201.7071.071
211.6381.017
221.5720.960
231.5130.922
241.4540.868
251.3980.836
261.3360.809
271.2860.769
281.2470.738
291.2130.704
301.1610.668
311.1200.636
321.0880.604
331.0530.580
341.0210.558
350.9900.528
360.9580.504
370.9320.482
380.8970.462
390.8620.446
400.8360.425
410.8090.406
420.7860.392
430.7580.380
440.7370.365
450.7170.352
460.6950.337
470.6750.324
480.6570.308
490.6380.296
500.6210.284
510.6010.272
520.5830.262
530.5650.249
540.5490.238
550.5320.227
560.5140.214
570.4980.206
580.4810.199
590.4690.191
600.4570.181
610.4420.171
620.4300.164
630.4170.158
640.4040.150
650.3880.144
660.3760.139
670.3630.133
680.3510.127
690.3410.120
700.3270.115
710.3170.109
720.3040.104
730.2940.099
740.2820.094
750.2680.089
760.2560.084
770.2440.079
780.2350.075
790.2210.071
800.2110.066
810.2000.061
820.1910.057
830.1830.052
840.1730.048
850.1640.045
860.1550.041
870.1440.036
880.1330.033
890.1240.029
900.1170.025
910.1090.022
920.1000.018
930.0900.013
940.0800.009
950.0700.006
960.0600.002
970.0470.000
980.0330.000
990.0220.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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