Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1969) (GL)
Sep0.1300.0430.0790.0000.0460.903
Sep-Oct0.5210.0700.1500.0000.3223.549
Sep-Nov1.1350.0980.2330.0000.5578.125

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.2243.374
202.0291.711
301.3301.003
400.8600.589
500.6040.364
600.4160.214
700.2780.128
800.1610.069
900.0770.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.5798.849
26.2617.057
35.5726.357
45.0835.784
54.6375.363
64.1914.781
73.8684.378
83.5994.006
93.3743.642
103.2243.374
113.0633.156
122.8992.921
132.7862.747
142.6332.576
152.5092.394
162.3942.254
172.2932.096
182.1841.941
192.1011.810
202.0291.711
211.9311.618
221.8441.518
231.7671.451
241.6971.357
251.6261.300
261.5651.252
271.5001.181
281.4541.128
291.3971.067
301.3301.003
311.2690.948
321.2060.893
331.1500.852
341.0970.813
351.0540.761
361.0120.722
370.9760.684
380.9360.650
390.8940.623
400.8600.589
410.8330.557
420.8050.535
430.7770.516
440.7490.492
450.7260.470
460.6990.447
470.6720.427
480.6480.402
490.6270.383
500.6040.364
510.5830.348
520.5660.331
530.5460.313
540.5230.296
550.5020.280
560.4840.261
570.4690.250
580.4530.240
590.4340.229
600.4160.214
610.4000.201
620.3850.192
630.3720.183
640.3590.173
650.3430.165
660.3290.158
670.3160.151
680.3040.142
690.2900.134
700.2780.128
710.2680.120
720.2560.114
730.2430.107
740.2280.102
750.2170.095
760.2050.090
770.1920.084
780.1810.079
790.1720.075
800.1610.069
810.1520.064
820.1430.059
830.1350.054
840.1280.050
850.1200.046
860.1090.042
870.1010.038
880.0930.034
890.0830.031
900.0770.027
910.0680.023
920.0580.020
930.0500.016
940.0410.012
950.0340.009
960.0260.006
970.0180.003
980.0080.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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