Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


Return to catchment list
Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Feb2.5355.2710.0240.0001.72439.190
Feb-Mar3.65311.3282.2510.0003.05240.154
Feb-Apr4.43011.8352.5000.0003.23640.572

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.66612.230
203.9145.491
302.4333.163
401.5241.880
501.0041.189
600.6460.707
700.4080.434
800.2220.236
900.0850.093

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.01954.943
219.80141.417
316.52333.730
414.18327.663
512.67323.551
611.53720.110
710.27917.113
89.10814.864
98.25813.463
107.66612.230
117.12511.116
126.52910.265
135.9699.319
145.5208.558
155.1597.970
164.8237.280
174.5996.699
184.3506.207
194.1295.830
203.9145.491
213.7065.152
223.5404.893
233.3714.559
243.2214.358
253.0274.194
262.8903.947
272.7733.765
282.6613.555
292.5403.340
302.4333.163
312.3332.981
322.2362.833
332.1232.703
342.0522.547
351.9522.405
361.8272.285
371.7362.177
381.6652.083
391.5881.974
401.5241.880
411.4571.804
421.4051.736
431.3461.670
441.2941.592
451.2461.520
461.1901.449
471.1441.367
481.1001.307
491.0441.243
501.0041.189
510.9661.141
520.9261.089
530.8901.022
540.8560.976
550.8090.911
560.7800.870
570.7420.832
580.7110.795
590.6770.754
600.6460.707
610.6130.673
620.5840.640
630.5580.609
640.5300.583
650.5140.555
660.4960.533
670.4750.507
680.4520.482
690.4270.454
700.4080.434
710.3920.409
720.3710.390
730.3510.370
740.3270.349
750.3080.329
760.2870.309
770.2670.289
780.2530.272
790.2350.257
800.2220.236
810.2040.219
820.1920.203
830.1790.187
840.1640.173
850.1520.161
860.1400.146
870.1230.131
880.1100.118
890.0980.105
900.0850.093
910.0700.081
920.0530.068
930.0430.054
940.0300.040
950.0220.030
960.0110.020
970.0000.008
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence