Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


Return to catchment list
Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Mar1.1186.0572.2270.0001.3280.042
Mar-Apr1.8956.5642.4750.0001.5120.068
Mar-May2.8706.8952.4750.0001.76122.384

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.545
204.582
302.697
401.552
500.935
600.533
700.309
800.161
900.060

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.086
216.372
314.916
413.720
512.834
611.605
710.742
89.939
99.141
108.545
118.055
127.518
137.114
146.715
156.281
165.943
175.555
185.168
194.837
204.582
214.342
224.082
233.905
243.654
253.501
263.373
273.183
283.036
292.872
302.697
312.544
322.394
332.280
342.172
352.029
361.919
371.814
381.721
391.646
401.552
411.464
421.402
431.351
441.284
451.225
461.162
471.106
481.037
490.987
500.935
510.889
520.846
530.796
540.751
550.707
560.657
570.628
580.600
590.571
600.533
610.498
620.473
630.451
640.425
650.405
660.385
670.368
680.346
690.324
700.309
710.289
720.274
730.257
740.242
750.226
760.213
770.199
780.186
790.175
800.161
810.148
820.136
830.124
840.114
850.106
860.095
870.085
880.077
890.069
900.060
910.052
920.043
930.034
940.025
950.019
960.013
970.005
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence