Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Apr0.7770.5080.2480.0000.1840.026
Apr-May1.7520.8390.2480.0000.43322.343
Apr-Jun2.2801.4210.2990.0000.69222.822

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.2546.325
204.4302.849
302.7491.607
401.7730.925
501.1790.567
600.7820.331
700.5080.196
800.2920.105
900.1240.041

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.09421.397
219.11816.221
316.59914.225
414.17512.614
512.70911.446
611.3909.871
710.5508.810
89.7437.861
99.0446.963
108.2546.325
117.6315.821
127.0845.294
136.5174.914
146.1854.552
155.8714.176
165.5733.893
175.2613.580
184.9633.281
194.7073.034
204.4302.849
214.2322.679
224.0432.499
233.8552.379
243.6532.213
253.4552.113
263.2812.030
273.1511.909
283.0011.817
292.8941.714
302.7491.607
312.6061.513
322.5181.423
332.4101.355
342.3141.290
352.2081.205
362.1261.141
372.0391.079
381.9621.024
391.8580.980
401.7730.925
411.7160.874
421.6460.838
431.5720.809
441.5040.769
451.4330.735
461.3790.698
471.3260.666
481.2770.626
491.2260.597
501.1790.567
511.1320.540
521.0920.514
531.0430.486
540.9920.459
550.9630.433
560.9230.404
570.8860.387
580.8490.370
590.8120.353
600.7820.331
610.7540.310
620.7190.295
630.6940.282
640.6580.266
650.6330.254
660.6070.242
670.5820.232
680.5620.219
690.5350.205
700.5080.196
710.4860.184
720.4620.175
730.4390.164
740.4200.155
750.3960.146
760.3760.138
770.3540.129
780.3320.121
790.3120.114
800.2920.105
810.2760.097
820.2570.090
830.2360.082
840.2220.076
850.2050.071
860.1890.064
870.1730.057
880.1580.052
890.1380.047
900.1240.041
910.1090.035
920.0930.030
930.0790.024
940.0660.018
950.0520.014
960.0410.010
970.0250.004
980.0140.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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