Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Historical and exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
May0.9740.3310.0000.0000.24922.316
May-Jun1.5030.9140.0510.0000.50822.796
May-Jul2.0311.2060.0510.0000.65423.068

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.7485.049
202.5662.309
301.6021.356
401.0900.816
500.7380.518
600.4940.314
700.3210.191
800.1830.104
900.0720.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.71221.856
211.17715.319
39.39912.947
48.46511.126
57.5389.868
66.6888.264
76.0177.245
85.4396.376
95.0535.589
104.7485.049
114.3764.633
124.0934.206
133.8593.904
143.5733.619
153.3963.326
163.1833.108
172.9902.867
182.8692.639
192.7332.450
202.5662.309
212.4452.180
222.3262.043
232.2121.951
242.1041.823
252.0061.747
261.9181.683
271.8181.590
281.7361.519
291.6751.440
301.6021.356
311.5411.283
321.4781.212
331.4231.159
341.3591.107
351.3101.040
361.2680.989
371.2210.940
381.1780.895
391.1300.860
401.0900.816
411.0480.774
421.0110.745
430.9760.720
440.9320.688
450.8970.660
460.8640.629
470.8300.602
480.8030.569
490.7720.544
500.7380.518
510.7090.496
520.6790.474
530.6480.449
540.6170.426
550.5910.404
560.5710.378
570.5520.363
580.5360.349
590.5130.333
600.4940.314
610.4650.295
620.4440.282
630.4260.270
640.4110.255
650.3970.245
660.3810.234
670.3680.224
680.3540.212
690.3380.200
700.3210.191
710.3010.180
720.2860.171
730.2710.161
740.2590.153
750.2470.143
760.2350.135
770.2220.127
780.2070.119
790.1930.112
800.1830.104
810.1710.096
820.1590.088
830.1490.081
840.1360.074
850.1240.069
860.1140.062
870.1020.055
880.0920.050
890.0820.044
900.0720.038
910.0620.032
920.0520.026
930.0430.020
940.0320.013
950.0210.008
960.0110.003
970.0030.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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