Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.701
203.716
302.093
401.218
500.756
600.450
700.275
800.155
900.068

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.939
229.405
324.472
420.754
518.119
614.949
712.944
811.237
99.724
108.701
117.922
127.134
136.576
146.050
155.518
165.129
174.696
184.288
193.959
203.716
213.492
223.248
233.099
242.879
252.751
262.644
272.483
282.362
292.234
302.093
311.974
321.855
331.768
341.688
351.577
361.496
371.416
381.346
391.289
401.218
411.153
421.107
431.068
441.018
450.974
460.926
470.886
480.834
490.795
500.756
510.722
520.689
530.651
540.618
550.583
560.546
570.524
580.502
590.479
600.450
610.423
620.404
630.387
640.367
650.351
660.336
670.322
680.304
690.287
700.275
710.259
720.247
730.233
740.221
750.209
760.198
770.186
780.176
790.167
800.155
810.144
820.134
830.124
840.116
850.109
860.100
870.091
880.084
890.076
900.068
910.061
920.054
930.046
940.038
950.032
960.026
970.019
980.014
990.008


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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