Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.8633.845
201.5561.886
300.9771.070
400.6350.609
500.4200.368
600.2930.212
700.1910.125
800.1140.068
900.0510.029

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.40310.227
27.0178.157
35.9207.339
45.0826.676
54.5056.169
63.9635.500
73.6425.029
83.3064.590
93.0644.161
102.8633.845
112.6693.589
122.4833.313
132.3453.108
142.1962.904
152.0382.689
161.9202.526
171.8262.338
181.7192.154
191.6252.002
201.5561.886
211.4871.779
221.4011.659
231.3461.585
241.2901.475
251.2091.410
261.1621.355
271.1111.273
281.0731.210
291.0221.143
300.9771.070
310.9401.008
320.9020.945
330.8680.899
340.8330.857
350.7950.798
360.7570.756
370.7280.713
380.6960.677
390.6690.647
400.6350.609
410.6030.575
420.5780.551
430.5560.530
440.5410.504
450.5210.481
460.4970.456
470.4760.435
480.4590.408
490.4400.388
500.4200.368
510.4070.350
520.3930.333
530.3790.314
540.3660.297
550.3530.279
560.3390.260
570.3230.249
580.3110.238
590.3030.227
600.2930.212
610.2830.198
620.2720.189
630.2620.180
640.2520.170
650.2410.163
660.2300.155
670.2210.148
680.2110.140
690.1990.131
700.1910.125
710.1840.118
720.1760.112
730.1680.105
740.1610.100
750.1510.094
760.1440.088
770.1360.083
780.1300.078
790.1220.074
800.1140.068
810.1080.063
820.1000.059
830.0940.054
840.0870.050
850.0800.047
860.0730.043
870.0670.039
880.0620.036
890.0570.032
900.0510.029
910.0450.026
920.0400.022
930.0360.019
940.0300.016
950.0250.013
960.0210.011
970.0160.008
980.0090.006
990.0020.004


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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