Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.0223.515
203.0381.507
302.0660.846
401.5120.490
501.1150.303
600.8260.179
700.5910.109
800.3870.061
900.2150.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.40415.544
211.28611.037
39.5769.344
48.4608.037
57.5247.089
66.7765.921
76.1475.164
85.6504.508
95.3373.919
105.0223.515
114.7433.205
124.4332.891
134.2192.667
143.9682.454
153.7302.239
163.5422.082
173.4001.906
183.2681.740
193.1511.606
203.0381.507
212.9251.416
222.8151.316
232.6911.256
242.5971.166
252.5171.114
262.3991.070
272.3101.005
282.2210.955
292.1350.903
302.0660.846
312.0060.797
321.9180.749
331.8580.713
341.7980.681
351.7350.635
361.6920.602
371.6400.570
381.6050.542
391.5590.519
401.5120.490
411.4720.463
421.4280.445
431.3890.429
441.3350.409
451.2800.391
461.2410.371
471.2080.355
481.1770.334
491.1480.318
501.1150.303
511.0750.289
521.0450.276
531.0170.260
540.9890.247
550.9570.233
560.9340.218
570.9060.209
580.8810.200
590.8600.191
600.8260.179
610.7990.169
620.7790.161
630.7490.154
640.7280.146
650.6960.140
660.6760.134
670.6550.128
680.6330.121
690.6110.114
700.5910.109
710.5670.103
720.5500.098
730.5260.093
740.5040.088
750.4860.083
760.4630.078
770.4400.074
780.4210.070
790.4040.066
800.3870.061
810.3700.057
820.3520.053
830.3340.049
840.3180.046
850.2970.043
860.2790.040
870.2620.036
880.2470.033
890.2300.030
900.2150.027
910.1990.024
920.1840.021
930.1660.018
940.1480.015
950.1310.013
960.1140.011
970.0960.008
980.0710.006
990.0480.004


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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