Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.9472.503
202.6951.220
301.8810.685
401.4120.384
501.0460.229
600.7550.130
700.5250.076
800.3530.041
900.1880.017

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.5046.628
27.0475.288
36.2984.763
45.7074.333
55.3134.015
64.8863.576
74.5783.270
84.3412.987
94.1142.709
103.9472.503
113.7722.336
123.6262.154
133.4742.020
143.3261.888
153.1961.748
163.0771.639
172.9651.517
182.8591.397
192.7761.296
202.6951.220
212.5921.149
222.4861.072
232.3961.021
242.3200.949
252.2330.906
262.1490.870
272.0850.817
282.0280.777
291.9560.732
301.8810.685
311.8270.643
321.7710.603
331.7230.573
341.6710.545
351.6200.507
361.5730.479
371.5330.452
381.4930.427
391.4580.408
401.4120.384
411.3710.362
421.3330.346
431.2930.333
441.2510.316
451.2180.301
461.1850.286
471.1510.272
481.1140.254
491.0760.242
501.0460.229
511.0170.218
520.9780.207
530.9480.195
540.9190.184
550.8790.173
560.8510.160
570.8280.153
580.8040.147
590.7830.139
600.7550.130
610.7240.122
620.7030.116
630.6830.110
640.6580.104
650.6300.099
660.6130.094
670.5890.090
680.5670.085
690.5490.080
700.5250.076
710.5050.071
720.4860.068
730.4680.063
740.4490.060
750.4330.056
760.4190.053
770.4050.050
780.3900.047
790.3700.044
800.3530.041
810.3370.038
820.3170.035
830.2950.032
840.2760.030
850.2610.028
860.2470.025
870.2310.023
880.2190.021
890.2050.019
900.1880.017
910.1740.015
920.1590.013
930.1420.011
940.1260.009
950.1110.008
960.0940.006
970.0740.004
980.0560.003
990.0370.002


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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