Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.6189.747
206.3873.778
303.5211.961
402.0471.054
501.2140.610
600.7110.336
700.4340.192
800.2130.099
900.0660.039

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.15243.335
224.48431.349
321.50126.724
419.10723.074
516.86620.374
615.57416.974
714.41014.728
813.26112.759
912.51310.973
1011.6189.747
1111.0288.809
1210.3337.856
139.6907.182
149.1936.546
158.7315.907
168.2565.441
177.7034.926
187.1914.446
196.7564.060
206.3873.778
216.0333.520
225.6183.240
235.2963.071
244.9672.824
254.7032.681
264.4202.562
274.1632.384
283.9152.251
293.6862.112
303.5211.961
313.3351.834
323.2021.707
333.0101.615
342.8431.532
352.6361.417
362.5181.333
372.3881.252
382.2521.181
392.1451.124
402.0471.054
411.9450.989
421.8340.944
431.7260.906
441.6340.857
451.5540.815
461.4960.769
471.4310.731
481.3420.682
491.2710.646
501.2140.610
511.1500.578
521.0840.548
531.0280.513
540.9750.484
550.9210.452
560.8800.419
570.8330.400
580.7890.381
590.7560.362
600.7110.336
610.6820.313
620.6480.297
630.6230.283
640.5920.266
650.5650.253
660.5330.240
670.5100.229
680.4860.215
690.4660.201
700.4340.192
710.4050.179
720.3750.169
730.3530.159
740.3350.149
750.3070.140
760.2830.131
770.2650.123
780.2510.115
790.2290.108
800.2130.099
810.1940.092
820.1750.085
830.1590.077
840.1450.071
850.1310.066
860.1170.060
870.1010.054
880.0890.050
890.0780.045
900.0660.039
910.0550.035
920.0450.030
930.0340.025
940.0260.020
950.0190.017
960.0120.014
970.0050.010
980.0000.007
990.0000.004


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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