Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.5555.311
201.3682.298
300.8511.274
400.5580.727
500.3770.443
600.2570.258
700.1680.155
800.0990.085
900.0420.037

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.75819.881
27.24514.873
35.96312.844
44.81111.311
54.26010.100
63.7348.634
73.3527.624
83.0026.724
92.7755.896
102.5555.311
112.3174.859
122.1474.400
131.9974.068
141.8803.713
151.7723.407
161.6853.178
171.5892.889
181.5182.653
191.4412.450
201.3682.298
211.2862.154
221.2191.994
231.1711.907
241.1201.770
251.0741.690
261.0221.622
270.9791.520
280.9361.444
290.8961.363
300.8511.274
310.8121.199
320.7801.124
330.7511.069
340.7261.020
350.6930.950
360.6650.899
370.6320.849
380.6060.806
390.5800.771
400.5580.727
410.5380.686
420.5170.658
430.4960.634
440.4760.603
450.4590.576
460.4420.546
470.4230.522
480.4070.490
490.3920.466
500.3770.443
510.3610.422
520.3510.402
530.3360.379
540.3230.359
550.3120.338
560.2990.315
570.2880.302
580.2790.289
590.2680.276
600.2570.258
610.2450.242
620.2390.231
630.2280.220
640.2190.209
650.2110.199
660.2030.190
670.1940.182
680.1850.172
690.1770.162
700.1680.155
710.1610.146
720.1550.139
730.1460.131
740.1390.124
750.1330.116
760.1240.110
770.1180.103
780.1110.098
790.1040.092
800.0990.085
810.0940.079
820.0890.074
830.0820.068
840.0760.063
850.0710.059
860.0650.054
870.0600.049
880.0540.046
890.0480.041
900.0420.037
910.0380.033
920.0330.029
930.0290.025
940.0250.020
950.0200.017
960.0160.014
970.0120.010
980.0070.007
990.0000.005


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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