Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.7053.515
200.4061.507
300.2690.846
400.1930.490
500.1380.303
600.1000.179
700.0710.109
800.0440.061
900.0220.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.59115.544
21.84111.037
31.4929.344
41.2578.037
51.0837.089
60.9905.921
70.9135.164
80.8184.508
90.7573.919
100.7053.515
110.6573.205
120.6132.891
130.5802.667
140.5452.454
150.5122.239
160.4882.082
170.4681.906
180.4471.740
190.4261.606
200.4061.507
210.3871.416
220.3741.316
230.3581.256
240.3451.166
250.3331.114
260.3191.070
270.3051.005
280.2940.955
290.2780.903
300.2690.846
310.2610.797
320.2520.749
330.2440.713
340.2360.681
350.2270.635
360.2190.602
370.2120.570
380.2050.542
390.1980.519
400.1930.490
410.1870.463
420.1790.445
430.1720.429
440.1660.409
450.1610.391
460.1560.371
470.1510.355
480.1470.334
490.1420.318
500.1380.303
510.1340.289
520.1290.276
530.1250.260
540.1210.247
550.1170.233
560.1140.218
570.1100.209
580.1070.200
590.1040.191
600.1000.179
610.0960.169
620.0930.161
630.0900.154
640.0870.146
650.0840.140
660.0810.134
670.0790.128
680.0760.121
690.0730.114
700.0710.109
710.0680.103
720.0640.098
730.0620.093
740.0590.088
750.0560.083
760.0540.078
770.0520.074
780.0490.070
790.0460.066
800.0440.061
810.0420.057
820.0390.053
830.0370.049
840.0350.046
850.0320.043
860.0300.040
870.0280.036
880.0260.033
890.0240.030
900.0220.027
910.0190.024
920.0170.021
930.0150.018
940.0120.015
950.0100.013
960.0080.011
970.0050.008
980.0020.006
990.0000.004


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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