Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.2720.094
Median0.7510.368
Mean1.7441.265
75% Quartile2.1001.409
Interquartile Range1.8281.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.67810.227
29.7088.157
38.3577.339
47.3196.676
56.5726.169
65.9575.500
75.5035.029
85.0794.590
94.7234.161
104.4303.845
114.2303.589
123.9703.313
133.7703.108
143.5422.904
153.3782.689
163.1992.526
173.0032.338
182.8722.154
192.7642.002
202.6111.886
212.4811.779
222.3961.659
232.2831.585
242.1831.475
252.1001.410
262.0001.355
271.9281.273
281.8381.210
291.7731.143
301.7051.070
311.6521.008
321.5760.945
331.5140.899
341.4480.857
351.3860.798
361.3260.756
371.2670.713
381.2120.677
391.1610.647
401.1050.609
411.0670.575
421.0220.551
430.9840.530
440.9530.504
450.9140.481
460.8730.456
470.8410.435
480.8070.408
490.7790.388
500.7510.368
510.7220.350
520.6940.333
530.6700.314
540.6500.297
550.6290.279
560.6090.260
570.5870.249
580.5620.238
590.5430.227
600.5200.212
610.4950.198
620.4780.189
630.4630.180
640.4450.170
650.4280.163
660.4100.155
670.3930.148
680.3750.140
690.3590.131
700.3450.125
710.3340.118
720.3210.112
730.3030.105
740.2860.100
750.2720.094
760.2570.088
770.2440.083
780.2310.078
790.2210.074
800.2050.068
810.1960.063
820.1820.059
830.1690.054
840.1550.050
850.1450.047
860.1360.043
870.1250.039
880.1150.036
890.1040.032
900.0950.029
910.0850.026
920.0750.022
930.0680.019
940.0600.016
950.0490.013
960.0410.011
970.0330.008
980.0210.006
990.0080.004


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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