Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.9190.670
Median2.6622.236
Mean6.0678.110
75% Quartile7.1997.384
Interquartile Range6.2816.715

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.21990.195
234.51063.659
329.33553.892
426.11946.448
523.82141.106
621.92934.577
720.17330.371
819.03426.733
917.55023.455
1016.41621.205
1115.25019.473
1214.32617.702
1313.55816.436
1412.85515.230
1512.28414.001
1611.49513.095
1710.82112.078
1810.38611.114
199.78510.327
209.2709.743
218.8039.202
228.3638.608
237.9178.243
247.5277.704
257.2017.388
266.8817.122
276.6916.722
286.4076.418
296.1276.096
305.8665.742
315.6225.440
325.3705.136
335.1684.911
344.9604.707
354.7634.419
364.5344.208
374.3634.000
384.2383.817
394.0563.668
403.9223.481
413.8143.306
423.6653.184
433.5263.080
443.3112.946
453.2072.829
463.0722.698
472.9512.589
482.8662.448
492.7532.343
502.6622.236
512.5852.141
522.4902.052
532.3821.945
542.3081.853
552.2291.755
562.1351.650
572.0631.588
581.9861.526
591.9211.463
601.8551.378
611.7801.302
621.7141.247
631.6411.196
641.5731.138
651.5051.093
661.4271.048
671.3591.007
681.2930.956
691.2360.905
701.1660.869
711.1080.822
721.0660.786
731.0130.744
740.9670.708
750.9170.670
760.8690.636
770.8220.601
780.7680.570
790.7320.541
800.6720.504
810.6330.471
820.5950.441
830.5500.408
840.5110.381
850.4710.359
860.4320.330
870.3830.302
880.3400.280
890.2980.255
900.2740.229
910.2330.205
920.1920.180
930.1630.154
940.1310.125
950.0980.106
960.0680.085
970.0370.059
980.0000.039
990.0000.019


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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