Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.245
Median1.242
Mean4.785
75% Quartile5.805
Interquartile Range5.560

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.627
229.101
326.539
424.430
522.866
620.687
719.154
817.718
916.286
1015.211
1114.320
1213.339
1312.598
1411.860
1511.056
1610.424
179.696
188.968
198.341
207.858
217.401
226.907
236.570
246.094
255.805
265.562
275.203
284.928
294.621
304.296
314.013
323.739
333.532
343.336
353.080
362.886
372.702
382.538
392.410
402.248
412.101
421.996
431.911
441.799
451.703
461.601
471.512
481.402
491.323
501.242
511.171
521.104
531.030
540.962
550.897
560.823
570.782
580.742
590.699
600.647
610.598
620.564
630.533
640.498
650.471
660.446
670.423
680.394
690.366
700.347
710.322
720.303
730.281
740.263
750.245
760.229
770.212
780.197
790.184
800.168
810.154
820.141
830.127
840.116
850.108
860.097
870.086
880.078
890.070
900.061
910.053
920.045
930.037
940.029
950.024
960.019
970.013
980.009
990.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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