Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.161
Median0.723
Mean3.918
75% Quartile3.246
Interquartile Range3.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.175
232.422
328.211
424.834
522.290
619.002
716.761
814.737
912.845
1011.512
1110.470
129.394
138.620
147.883
157.133
166.582
175.968
185.391
194.926
204.584
214.271
223.931
233.725
243.423
253.248
263.103
272.886
282.723
292.553
302.368
312.213
322.058
331.945
341.844
351.703
361.602
371.502
381.416
391.347
401.261
411.182
421.128
431.081
441.022
450.972
460.916
470.869
480.810
490.767
500.723
510.685
520.649
530.607
540.571
550.534
560.494
570.471
580.448
590.425
600.395
610.367
620.348
630.331
640.311
650.296
660.281
670.267
680.250
690.234
700.223
710.208
720.196
730.184
740.173
750.161
760.152
770.141
780.132
790.124
800.114
810.105
820.097
830.088
840.081
850.076
860.069
870.062
880.057
890.051
900.045
910.039
920.034
930.028
940.023
950.019
960.015
970.011
980.007
990.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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