Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


Return to catchment list
Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Jan 2010 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.5520.440
Median1.8061.946
Mean4.7978.304
75% Quartile5.6608.436
Interquartile Range5.1087.995

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.86073.916
229.15658.208
325.45452.063
422.72747.028
520.67943.315
618.52738.191
717.05734.630
815.53931.350
914.50928.142
1013.45125.788
1112.52123.881
1211.71221.833
1310.94820.327
1410.27218.863
159.48017.313
168.91116.130
178.46714.806
188.05313.525
197.63712.456
207.21011.654
216.81110.913
226.51010.127
236.1519.602
245.8908.872
255.6658.436
265.3428.074
275.0887.545
284.8387.144
294.5906.700
304.4186.236
314.2025.834
324.0075.447
333.8485.157
343.6684.883
353.5204.525
363.2984.255
373.1753.999
383.0653.771
392.9283.592
402.7903.367
412.7003.161
422.5673.015
432.4572.896
442.3392.739
452.2482.603
462.1602.458
472.0592.332
481.9742.175
491.9022.062
501.8061.946
511.7361.844
521.6671.747
531.6071.638
541.5231.540
551.4671.444
561.4091.335
571.3571.273
581.3001.213
591.2521.150
601.1951.071
611.1480.996
621.0970.944
631.0500.898
641.0080.843
650.9520.802
660.9090.762
670.8510.726
680.8180.680
690.7840.636
700.7370.606
710.6890.566
720.6480.535
730.6140.501
740.5810.471
750.5520.440
760.5190.414
770.4880.386
780.4580.362
790.4330.340
800.4040.312
810.3730.288
820.3450.266
830.3180.242
840.2910.224
850.2630.208
860.2300.189
870.2120.170
880.1900.156
890.1630.140
900.1320.123
910.1070.109
920.0890.094
930.0650.079
940.0450.063
950.0270.053
960.0090.043
970.0000.030
980.0000.021
990.0000.013


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence