Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale



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Probability distribution for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.0070.440
Median5.9961.946
Mean10.7488.304
75% Quartile15.1238.436
Interquartile Range13.1167.995

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.58473.916
247.85058.208
342.97852.063
440.26647.028
537.54743.315
635.38038.191
733.01234.630
831.03531.350
929.66028.142
1028.33625.788
1126.58123.881
1225.37421.833
1324.36820.327
1423.22718.863
1522.37317.313
1621.34516.130
1720.47314.806
1819.80213.525
1919.04612.456
2018.48311.654
2117.74010.913
2217.08510.127
2316.4009.602
2415.7828.872
2515.1328.436
2614.3288.074
2713.8057.545
2813.2157.144
2912.7626.700
3012.2806.236
3111.9505.834
3211.5135.447
3311.0535.157
3410.6034.883
3510.2594.525
369.8214.255
379.4983.999
389.1383.771
398.7973.592
408.5253.367
418.2293.161
428.0033.015
437.7462.896
447.5372.739
457.2702.603
467.0032.458
476.7042.332
486.4542.175
496.2212.062
505.9961.946
515.7241.844
525.4781.747
535.2611.638
545.0641.540
554.8901.444
564.7021.335
574.4961.273
584.3381.213
594.1741.150
604.0191.071
613.8480.996
623.6880.944
633.5450.898
643.4090.843
653.2840.802
663.1690.762
673.0430.726
682.8940.680
692.7470.636
702.6100.606
712.4660.566
722.3460.535
732.2220.501
742.1240.471
752.0070.440
761.9020.414
771.7930.386
781.7020.362
791.6250.340
801.5350.312
811.4500.288
821.3340.266
831.2430.242
841.1540.224
851.0730.208
860.9790.189
870.8990.170
880.8170.156
890.7470.140
900.6750.123
910.5970.109
920.5340.094
930.4660.079
940.3830.063
950.3140.053
960.2480.043
970.1730.030
980.1010.021
990.0410.013


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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