Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1995) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Aug0.2970.2540.0030.1374.257
Aug-Sep0.5310.3660.0060.2525.532
Aug-Oct0.8530.4180.0080.7055.799

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.7232.503
200.4011.220
300.2640.685
400.1890.384
500.1320.229
600.0940.130
700.0660.076
800.0420.041
900.0210.017

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.8036.628
21.9855.288
31.6214.763
41.3414.333
51.1864.015
61.0413.576
70.9273.270
80.8572.987
90.7852.709
100.7232.503
110.6662.336
120.6132.154
130.5792.020
140.5441.888
150.5121.748
160.4851.639
170.4581.517
180.4401.397
190.4211.296
200.4011.220
210.3851.149
220.3691.072
230.3531.021
240.3390.949
250.3250.906
260.3140.870
270.2980.817
280.2860.777
290.2750.732
300.2640.685
310.2550.643
320.2460.603
330.2380.573
340.2290.545
350.2210.507
360.2140.479
370.2080.452
380.2010.427
390.1950.408
400.1890.384
410.1830.362
420.1760.346
430.1700.333
440.1630.316
450.1550.301
460.1500.286
470.1450.272
480.1400.254
490.1360.242
500.1320.229
510.1290.218
520.1240.207
530.1200.195
540.1160.184
550.1130.173
560.1080.160
570.1050.153
580.1010.147
590.0980.139
600.0940.130
610.0920.122
620.0890.116
630.0860.110
640.0830.104
650.0800.099
660.0770.094
670.0730.090
680.0710.085
690.0680.080
700.0660.076
710.0640.071
720.0610.068
730.0590.063
740.0560.060
750.0540.056
760.0510.053
770.0490.050
780.0470.047
790.0440.044
800.0420.041
810.0400.038
820.0380.035
830.0350.032
840.0340.030
850.0320.028
860.0290.025
870.0270.023
880.0250.021
890.0230.019
900.0210.017
910.0200.015
920.0180.013
930.0160.011
940.0140.009
950.0110.008
960.0090.006
970.0070.004
980.0050.003
990.0020.002


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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