Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Product list for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov0.7290.0520.0830.0020.4493.100
Nov-Dec2.7200.0840.1410.0034.44137.163
Nov-Jan7.98448.7070.1830.00315.12973.160

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.929
206.421
303.473
401.944
501.165
600.667
700.393
800.211
900.087

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
181.186
255.963
346.597
439.452
534.344
628.156
724.227
820.882
917.923
1015.929
1114.417
1212.895
1311.823
1410.815
159.802
169.065
178.249
187.486
196.872
206.421
216.008
225.559
235.286
244.885
254.654
264.460
274.169
283.952
293.722
303.473
313.262
323.051
332.897
342.757
352.563
362.422
372.283
382.163
392.065
401.944
411.832
421.754
431.688
441.603
451.529
461.448
471.381
481.294
491.230
501.165
511.109
521.055
530.992
540.938
550.881
560.821
570.786
580.751
590.715
600.667
610.625
620.595
630.567
640.535
650.511
660.487
670.465
680.438
690.412
700.393
710.369
720.350
730.329
740.311
750.292
760.275
770.258
780.243
790.229
800.211
810.195
820.181
830.166
840.154
850.144
860.131
870.118
880.109
890.098
900.087
910.077
920.066
930.056
940.044
950.037
960.029
970.020
980.013
990.007


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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