Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Feb2.75410.1280.0340.0022.85727.182
Feb-Mar4.25019.2374.7660.0044.94131.537
Feb-Apr5.64220.0945.3230.0065.44732.580

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.301
209.966
306.605
403.884
502.185
601.101
700.561
800.255
900.084

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.844
224.537
322.844
421.450
520.415
618.971
717.950
816.991
916.029
1015.301
1114.693
1214.017
1313.501
1412.981
1512.405
1611.944
1711.403
1810.848
1910.356
209.966
219.588
229.166
238.869
248.437
258.165
267.931
277.575
287.292
296.964
306.605
316.278
325.948
335.691
345.439
355.098
364.830
374.567
384.327
394.133
403.884
413.650
423.482
433.343
443.156
452.994
462.818
472.664
482.470
492.330
502.185
512.058
521.937
531.801
541.678
551.559
561.423
571.347
581.274
591.197
601.101
611.011
620.949
630.894
640.830
650.783
660.737
670.695
680.644
690.595
700.561
710.517
720.484
730.447
740.416
750.384
760.356
770.328
780.304
790.282
800.255
810.231
820.210
830.188
840.171
850.157
860.140
870.123
880.111
890.097
900.084
910.072
920.060
930.049
940.038
950.030
960.024
970.015
980.010
990.006


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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