Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Emu Creek at Emu Vale ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan3.2311.60135.9970.0031.59734.457
Jan-Feb5.6026.12937.0570.0054.08261.639
Jan-Mar6.92611.44638.2470.0075.36065.994

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.33525.788
2040.12211.654
3031.8486.236
4025.0793.367
5019.3261.946
6014.3381.071
709.8930.606
806.0330.312
902.7670.123

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.14373.916
277.06058.208
371.09752.063
466.41047.028
562.69343.315
660.49938.191
757.55334.630
855.65231.350
953.80128.142
1052.33525.788
1151.13323.881
1249.55321.833
1348.40920.327
1447.01318.863
1545.86517.313
1644.48216.130
1743.20514.806
1842.06013.525
1941.22312.456
2040.12211.654
2139.21310.913
2238.46310.127
2337.4119.602
2436.5478.872
2535.8768.436
2634.9838.074
2734.0017.545
2833.0397.144
2932.4796.700
3031.8486.236
3130.9985.834
3230.3945.447
3329.6665.157
3428.8714.883
3528.1224.525
3627.3794.255
3726.7253.999
3826.1653.771
3925.6123.592
4025.0793.367
4124.3983.161
4223.7603.015
4323.2082.896
4422.6512.739
4521.9732.603
4621.5052.458
4721.0072.332
4820.4232.175
4919.9682.062
5019.3261.946
5118.7951.844
5218.3001.747
5317.7141.638
5417.1301.540
5516.6981.444
5616.2381.335
5715.7831.273
5815.3651.213
5914.7941.150
6014.3381.071
6113.8940.996
6213.4210.944
6312.9120.898
6412.5140.843
6511.9750.802
6611.5310.762
6711.0180.726
6810.6490.680
6910.2730.636
709.8930.606
719.4610.566
728.9820.535
738.6780.501
748.3060.471
757.9790.440
767.6350.414
777.2230.386
786.8350.362
796.4180.340
806.0330.312
815.6830.288
825.3320.266
834.9980.242
844.6110.224
854.3520.208
864.0390.189
873.6960.170
883.3880.156
893.1190.140
902.7670.123
912.4390.109
922.1100.094
931.8490.079
941.5940.063
951.3770.053
961.1670.043
970.8640.030
980.6510.021
990.3810.013


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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