Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10241.666231.184
20218.836197.823
30199.479176.004
40183.558155.682
50169.856138.111
60156.389119.538
70142.625102.510
80125.36083.978
90104.03161.088

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1304.171315.619
2290.218288.748
3278.537278.193
4270.699269.501
5263.493263.049
6258.110254.047
7253.774247.689
8250.317241.716
9245.094235.720
10241.666231.184
11238.830227.397
12235.801223.187
13232.726219.969
14230.410216.723
15228.289213.126
16225.827210.248
17223.797206.860
18222.050203.376
19220.600200.282
20218.836197.823
21216.447195.430
22214.068192.745
23211.636190.854
24209.444188.076
25207.731186.321
26206.162184.802
27204.417182.472
28202.897180.609
29201.283178.426
30199.479176.004
31197.446173.769
32196.103171.479
33194.589169.655
34193.435167.845
35191.537165.339
36190.089163.317
37188.755161.281
38186.762159.367
39185.065157.782
40183.558155.682
41182.245153.633
42180.740152.102
43179.464150.804
44177.869149.009
45176.683147.381
46175.231145.544
47173.909143.864
48172.582141.649
49171.064139.957
50169.856138.111
51168.583136.421
52167.254134.715
53165.868132.701
54164.286130.755
55162.905128.760
56161.660126.313
57160.376124.853
58158.951123.365
59157.480121.720
60156.389119.538
61155.250117.335
62153.869115.711
63152.549114.181
64151.169112.286
65149.670110.797
66148.522109.263
67147.297107.819
68145.853105.918
69144.458103.944
70142.625102.510
71140.906100.530
72139.58598.928
73137.65997.031
74136.20995.318
75133.99293.399
76132.47491.667
77130.72089.760
78128.90187.981
79127.24786.259
80125.36083.978
81123.51881.807
82121.81279.716
83120.10777.312
84118.62875.274
85116.33873.489
86113.73771.057
87111.56968.515
88108.92866.443
89106.46563.926
90104.03161.088
91100.82558.402
9298.08355.184
9395.24251.699
9491.98647.378
9587.94544.229
9683.89040.551
9777.51735.083
9870.98230.278
9961.43224.568


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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