Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10121.257161.480
20103.516127.992
3092.174108.543
4083.63792.151
5075.68779.245
6068.46366.759
7060.94756.213
8053.36945.501
9044.05832.905

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1172.913263.799
2156.668228.939
3149.044215.767
4142.720205.168
5135.530197.455
6131.965186.924
7128.522179.656
8125.593172.962
9123.040166.373
10121.257161.480
11118.722157.455
12116.769153.047
13114.522149.725
14112.734146.415
15110.718142.797
16109.488139.940
17108.019136.619
18106.500133.254
19104.920130.306
20103.516127.992
21102.321125.764
22101.223123.292
2399.923121.568
2498.798119.062
2597.704117.496
2696.383116.151
2795.095114.105
2894.113112.485
2993.226110.606
3092.174108.543
3191.364106.659
3290.377104.751
3389.338103.246
3488.611101.766
3587.75399.737
3686.85698.119
3786.07996.505
3885.19295.003
3984.31193.770
4083.63792.151
4182.80490.587
4282.13889.429
4381.35488.454
4480.46487.116
4579.55585.913
4678.96184.567
4778.00183.347
4877.25881.754
4976.51780.548
5075.68779.245
5175.07078.062
5274.49776.877
5373.73275.492
5472.76774.166
5572.02372.819
5671.13671.186
5770.52070.219
5869.69869.242
5969.10168.169
6068.46366.759
6167.76065.350
6267.20864.320
6366.32463.357
6465.65462.172
6564.88761.249
6664.17960.303
6763.31059.419
6862.54758.263
6961.79357.072
7060.94756.213
7160.19255.035
7259.64854.088
7358.86452.974
7458.34251.975
7557.64750.863
7656.71049.865
7755.93148.773
7855.04047.760
7954.20746.785
8053.36945.501
8152.56844.285
8251.76143.121
8350.85741.788
8449.74740.664
8549.02739.681
8647.95938.347
8747.09336.957
8846.01535.826
8945.01334.453
9044.05832.905
9143.03031.438
9241.59629.676
9339.84127.755
9438.41725.350
9536.50523.574
9634.55721.465
9732.53418.241
9829.47115.286
9925.52211.564


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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