Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10210.161227.930
20185.197192.835
30166.398170.228
40151.263149.541
50137.579132.034
60124.325114.000
70111.69797.951
8095.50281.027
9075.63760.757

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1279.846318.071
2259.175289.275
3248.218277.984
4239.114268.696
5232.127261.810
6228.009252.214
7222.684245.447
8218.563239.099
9213.508232.736
10210.161227.930
11206.465223.923
12202.875219.473
13201.155216.078
14198.710212.656
15196.390208.870
16193.963205.845
17191.346202.289
18189.012198.639
19187.247195.402
20185.197192.835
21183.075190.339
22180.807187.544
23179.171185.577
24177.295182.693
25175.540180.874
26173.525179.301
27171.722176.893
28169.944174.969
29168.330172.720
30166.398170.228
31164.973167.933
32163.237165.586
33161.726163.721
34160.502161.873
35159.019159.320
36157.244157.264
37155.962155.198
38154.225153.260
39152.651151.659
40151.263149.541
41150.470147.480
42148.755145.943
43146.819144.642
44145.614142.846
45144.316141.221
46142.984139.391
47141.695137.722
48140.372135.527
49139.322133.854
50137.579132.034
51136.207130.372
52135.030128.698
53133.806126.727
54132.540124.829
55131.154122.888
56129.920120.517
57128.397119.106
58126.962117.673
59125.528116.091
60124.325114.000
61123.038111.897
62121.328110.351
63120.213108.900
64118.992107.106
65117.493105.702
66116.143104.258
67115.253102.903
68114.042101.125
69113.00199.284
70111.69797.951
71110.15396.117
72108.47894.637
73106.96992.890
74105.47691.318
75103.38089.562
76101.91887.983
77100.34186.249
7898.31184.637
7996.81283.081
8095.50281.027
8193.94879.078
8292.22577.208
8390.44675.065
8488.84873.254
8586.73571.671
8685.30369.520
8783.12567.278
8881.08165.455
8978.37663.245
9075.63760.757
9173.27358.406
9270.32355.590
9368.02852.540
9464.84648.751
9561.48045.980
9658.30142.727
9752.91337.843
9847.08633.483
9938.73828.179


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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