Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1050.29772.260
2043.49155.355
3038.91346.306
4035.53239.042
5032.33133.521
6029.46528.324
7026.76724.029
8023.71319.742
9019.95714.784

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.086139.062
265.848113.155
361.992104.304
459.47297.515
556.85492.750
655.38986.467
754.02082.274
852.85578.509
951.46774.892
1050.29772.260
1149.45070.128
1248.41267.826
1347.78566.114
1447.19064.426
1546.45762.603
1645.98361.178
1745.29659.538
1844.60157.893
1943.96256.466
2043.49155.355
2142.98854.292
2242.46553.122
2341.97152.310
2441.43751.138
2540.98350.410
2640.60149.787
2740.24248.844
2839.79448.101
2939.37347.243
3038.91346.306
3138.55545.456
3238.19544.599
3337.81043.926
3437.44543.266
3537.06842.366
3636.79241.652
3736.49940.943
3836.20140.284
3935.90339.746
4035.53239.042
4135.18738.364
4234.87637.864
4334.52637.444
4434.19036.869
4533.87236.353
4633.62135.778
4733.29435.258
4832.92934.582
4932.64334.071
5032.33133.521
5132.09533.023
5231.83232.525
5331.54131.945
5431.26431.391
5530.96030.830
5630.66530.151
5730.34629.751
5830.07029.347
5929.76528.904
6029.46528.324
6129.23527.745
6228.97427.323
6328.64226.929
6428.38426.446
6528.11226.069
6627.82425.685
6727.52525.326
6827.28024.857
6927.04424.376
7026.76724.029
7126.43623.554
7226.11723.173
7325.95122.725
7425.73722.324
7525.47321.879
7625.14921.480
7724.76521.044
7824.37620.641
7924.07020.253
8023.71319.742
8123.44219.260
8223.14418.799
8322.78018.272
8422.50217.829
8522.09017.442
8621.62116.917
8721.23616.370
8820.87715.927
8920.48415.389
9019.95714.784
9119.53114.211
9219.03113.524
9318.56012.777
9418.01411.844
9517.27111.156
9616.57910.341
9715.5379.096
9814.4527.959
9912.4596.529


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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