Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10102.106135.501
2083.746103.579
3071.84686.737
4062.66773.378
5054.83363.343
6047.75354.005
7041.49146.381
8034.76538.870
9026.76330.326

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.977264.164
2144.428214.093
3134.086196.996
4127.027183.900
5121.242174.724
6116.310162.653
7112.238154.615
8108.394147.415
9104.897140.513
10102.106135.501
1199.611131.448
1297.155127.080
1395.012123.837
1493.150120.646
1591.120117.202
1689.577114.515
1787.788111.428
1886.286108.337
1985.076105.660
2083.746103.579
2182.442101.591
2281.30799.403
2379.70697.889
2478.64195.705
2577.29694.349
2676.01493.190
2774.86891.439
2873.86790.060
2972.80588.471
3071.84686.737
3170.84885.165
3270.05083.582
3369.14482.342
3468.23181.127
3567.36079.472
3666.49778.159
3765.66576.858
3864.60975.651
3963.77074.666
4062.66773.378
4161.86572.140
4260.86471.228
4360.20870.462
4459.40569.415
4558.58768.477
4657.66267.433
4756.94466.489
4856.26665.262
4955.40164.338
5054.83363.343
5154.03362.443
5253.29161.545
5352.47460.499
5451.96859.502
5551.27858.493
5650.49857.275
5749.82956.558
5849.08355.834
5948.31955.042
6047.75354.005
6147.05752.973
6246.45952.221
6345.95351.520
6445.39450.660
6544.76849.992
6644.24549.310
6743.62748.674
6843.03447.845
6942.25846.993
7041.49146.381
7140.91045.544
7240.12244.873
7339.55644.086
7438.92443.382
7538.31542.601
7637.67841.903
7736.92041.140
7836.22440.435
7935.42339.759
8034.76538.870
8134.08738.032
8233.19137.232
8332.39736.320
8431.70235.553
8530.94534.885
8630.22633.980
8729.32233.041
8828.47932.280
8927.55631.360
9026.76330.326
9125.73229.351
9224.56628.185
9323.44826.921
9422.22125.349
9520.95724.195
9619.57222.833
9717.52920.767
9815.45418.894
9912.32716.560


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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