Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.233110.708
2064.13585.195
3057.37071.395
4051.97760.227
5047.56151.678
6043.29543.572
7039.44836.826
8034.94530.041
9029.04822.117

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1106.805209.212
297.156171.363
391.552158.341
487.270148.315
584.142141.259
681.784131.929
779.527125.684
877.629120.065
975.648114.654
1074.233110.708
1172.952107.507
1271.620104.046
1370.279101.469
1469.13398.925
1568.28396.173
1667.20094.019
1766.15391.538
1865.41189.046
1964.85986.882
2064.13585.195
2163.40183.580
2262.69481.799
2361.88580.564
2461.28478.778
2560.52977.667
2659.92076.716
2759.17975.276
2858.60674.141
2957.89772.829
3057.37071.395
3156.76670.092
3256.20068.777
3355.66967.745
3455.08666.731
3554.58265.349
3654.04764.249
3753.50463.157
3853.04662.143
3952.55661.314
4051.97760.227
4151.57659.180
4251.12258.408
4350.69557.758
4450.25056.869
4549.88056.071
4649.43355.180
4748.95654.374
4848.49253.325
4948.01852.532
5047.56151.678
5147.08550.903
5246.68150.129
5346.28149.226
5445.74948.363
5545.37947.488
5644.99346.429
5744.52345.804
5844.08545.173
5943.71444.480
6043.29543.572
6142.85242.666
6242.42142.004
6342.00341.387
6441.62440.628
6541.33340.037
6640.98539.433
6740.58238.868
6840.25638.131
6939.78237.372
7039.44836.826
7139.01536.077
7238.66235.475
7338.25934.768
7437.90034.135
7537.49133.430
7637.02632.799
7736.57932.108
7836.02431.468
7935.48630.852
8034.94530.041
8134.44329.275
8233.81528.541
8333.24627.702
8432.56726.994
8532.09726.376
8631.49925.537
8730.96124.663
8830.28823.952
8929.61023.089
9029.04822.117
9128.42421.196
9227.40720.089
9326.59218.883
9425.77317.372
9524.79816.256
9623.77114.929
9722.41112.899
9820.53511.034
9917.8558.677


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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