Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty



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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.43640.063
2026.02431.589
3023.70226.962
4021.87323.191
5020.22520.286
6018.86017.514
7017.43415.193
8015.75912.842
9013.70310.073

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.54972.119
236.68359.903
334.58455.674
433.40852.408
532.58850.103
631.89047.048
731.06344.998
830.34943.150
929.91841.366
1029.43640.063
1129.05639.005
1228.63437.859
1328.20437.005
1427.84736.161
1527.49435.247
1627.15634.530
1726.77633.704
1826.50432.874
1926.26732.152
2026.02431.589
2125.73131.049
2225.47230.453
2325.26030.040
2425.03529.441
2524.77529.069
2624.52428.750
2724.35428.267
2824.14427.885
2923.93327.444
3023.70226.962
3123.53126.523
3223.33426.080
3323.14725.732
3422.97625.391
3522.76324.924
3622.57324.552
3722.42224.183
3822.20123.840
3922.02523.559
4021.87323.191
4121.73922.837
4221.56322.574
4321.36722.354
4421.19222.052
4521.06821.781
4620.87521.478
4720.72121.204
4820.56520.847
4920.41920.577
5020.22520.286
5120.08120.022
5219.93019.758
5319.77019.449
5419.64319.155
5519.54818.856
5619.39718.493
5719.24118.279
5819.12218.063
5919.00617.826
6018.86017.514
6118.73017.203
6218.55716.976
6318.41016.764
6418.23916.503
6518.10416.300
6617.96716.092
6717.84815.897
6817.71615.643
6917.58815.381
7017.43415.193
7117.26914.934
7217.11814.726
7316.93814.482
7416.76114.262
7516.59714.018
7616.46813.800
7716.29013.560
7816.11213.338
7915.92113.124
8015.75912.842
8115.59212.576
8215.40012.320
8315.17912.028
8414.97911.781
8514.73611.565
8614.60311.272
8714.41110.966
8814.23410.717
8913.98810.415
9013.70310.073
9113.4709.750
9213.1689.360
9312.8368.935
9412.4578.401
9512.0098.005
9611.4947.534
9711.0196.811
9810.4506.145
999.5595.299


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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