Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty



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Exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty ( Jan 2009 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.07747.091
2018.64836.691
3016.76931.053
4015.48526.481
5014.24522.976
6013.17919.647
7012.12716.872
8010.85414.077
909.29310.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.82787.031
226.76671.717
325.38566.439
424.40662.373
523.68459.509
622.97655.720
722.43453.183
821.89050.898
921.47248.696
1021.07747.091
1120.69145.787
1220.40144.378
1320.12743.328
1419.81642.291
1519.62341.169
1619.43340.291
1719.23639.279
1819.04838.263
1918.83037.380
2018.64836.691
2118.45336.032
2218.24935.305
2318.06734.800
2417.86834.070
2517.67333.617
2617.49333.228
2717.30832.640
2817.10932.175
2916.95131.639
3016.76931.053
3116.62230.520
3216.49929.982
3316.35129.559
3416.20829.145
3516.11428.579
3615.96928.129
3715.85927.681
3815.72227.266
3915.59226.926
4015.48526.481
4115.34226.052
4215.21325.736
4315.09525.470
4414.98725.105
4514.85424.778
4614.71424.413
4714.59024.082
4814.47623.652
4914.35423.327
5014.24522.976
5114.12822.658
5214.02622.341
5313.91721.970
5413.78921.615
5513.69021.256
5613.58120.821
5713.48420.564
5813.40120.305
5913.28020.021
6013.17919.647
6113.05219.275
6212.93719.003
6312.85818.749
6412.76118.437
6512.66718.194
6612.57617.945
6712.47217.713
6812.37317.409
6912.25817.097
7012.12716.872
7112.03016.564
7211.89216.316
7311.80116.025
7411.63315.764
7511.50815.474
7611.39615.214
7711.26714.929
7811.11514.665
7911.00714.411
8010.85414.077
8110.71213.761
8210.54713.458
8310.41813.112
8410.29312.819
8510.13712.564
869.97812.218
879.80711.857
889.63711.563
899.44711.206
909.29310.805
919.10110.424
928.8979.966
938.6989.466
948.4348.841
958.1028.378
967.7707.828
977.4226.985
986.9636.211
996.0385.231


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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