Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile68.97975.377
Median95.806111.021
Mean101.145120.315
75% Quartile127.648154.682
Interquartile Range58.67079.304

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1225.374319.465
2207.699278.024
3194.948262.915
4187.523250.935
5182.106242.306
6176.444230.624
7170.652222.619
8166.190215.279
9162.673208.079
10159.842202.744
11156.303198.361
12153.911193.563
13151.155189.948
14148.849186.346
15146.575182.408
16144.267179.295
17142.301175.673
18140.705171.998
19138.565168.774
20136.735166.239
21134.302163.794
22132.943161.076
23131.239159.178
24129.190156.414
25127.669154.682
26126.053153.192
27124.885150.923
28122.992149.122
29121.460147.028
30120.244144.723
31118.781142.613
32117.159140.468
33115.992138.774
34114.922137.102
35113.544134.804
36112.091132.964
37111.227131.125
38109.842129.407
39108.536127.993
40107.373126.130
41106.403124.325
42105.350122.985
43104.080121.853
44102.965120.295
45101.713118.890
46100.371117.314
4799.117115.879
4898.213113.999
4996.989112.570
5095.806111.021
5194.770109.609
5293.459108.190
5392.624106.524
5491.717104.922
5590.627103.289
5689.352101.297
5788.352100.113
5887.42598.912
5986.21397.588
6085.54795.840
6184.51794.083
6283.44892.792
6382.22591.581
6481.33590.084
6580.24988.912
6679.12587.707
6777.92586.575
6876.73085.089
6975.75783.550
7074.69682.434
7173.55880.896
7272.35479.654
7371.23478.184
7470.15476.858
7568.94375.375
7667.58874.037
7766.51272.563
7865.41371.188
7964.01969.856
8062.82968.090
8161.56366.406
8260.23864.781
8358.71662.906
8457.24661.310
8555.95759.907
8654.40557.985
8753.13355.962
8851.69554.301
8950.52052.266
9049.10849.944
9147.62647.717
9245.43845.002
9343.47641.997
9441.42338.155
9539.46835.258
9636.19431.748
9732.85426.217
9829.26520.952
9922.34114.009


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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