Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile40.94633.431
Median51.93651.678
Mean54.81160.933
75% Quartile65.96177.667
Interquartile Range25.01544.235

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1115.374209.212
2105.587171.363
398.898158.341
494.726148.315
591.239141.259
688.779131.929
786.406125.684
884.096120.065
982.106114.654
1080.758110.708
1179.164107.507
1277.847104.046
1376.605101.469
1475.27298.925
1574.01296.173
1673.24094.019
1772.11091.538
1871.35789.046
1970.72086.882
2069.71385.195
2169.05183.580
2268.24581.799
2367.27780.564
2466.61878.778
2565.96577.667
2665.05576.716
2764.56675.276
2863.81874.141
2963.07872.829
3062.47571.395
3161.90470.092
3261.18868.777
3360.59267.745
3460.00966.731
3559.44165.349
3658.91064.249
3758.38163.157
3857.85562.143
3957.30161.314
4056.74760.227
4156.28459.180
4255.88358.408
4355.33357.758
4454.90656.869
4554.45556.071
4653.88055.180
4753.38654.374
4852.93553.325
4952.44152.532
5051.93651.678
5151.33050.903
5250.96850.129
5350.50949.226
5450.02848.363
5549.53047.488
5649.06846.429
5748.66245.804
5848.26045.173
5947.78144.480
6047.29043.572
6146.84542.666
6246.42842.004
6345.97441.387
6445.54240.628
6545.21040.037
6644.83239.433
6744.45338.868
6844.03138.131
6943.56737.372
7043.15236.826
7142.69536.077
7242.34135.475
7341.90534.768
7441.39234.135
7540.94233.430
7640.55232.799
7739.99732.108
7839.39631.468
7938.88730.852
8038.30530.041
8137.79229.275
8237.14628.541
8336.40527.702
8435.74226.994
8535.22626.376
8634.58125.537
8733.92224.663
8833.33923.952
8932.57423.089
9031.91122.117
9131.29321.196
9230.28920.089
9329.28918.883
9428.49617.372
9527.40416.256
9626.15514.929
9724.86412.899
9822.78011.034
9919.7258.677


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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