Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile62.62667.401
Median87.827100.894
Mean93.854112.875
75% Quartile118.177146.066
Interquartile Range55.55278.665

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1220.807303.550
2197.568268.148
3189.060254.486
4178.731243.363
5173.164235.192
6167.563223.922
7162.082216.066
8158.340208.771
9154.552201.534
10151.140196.123
11148.376191.648
12145.306186.722
13142.823182.993
14140.204179.263
15137.704175.169
16135.204171.923
17132.963168.137
18131.129164.286
19129.134160.901
20127.584158.236
21125.488155.663
22123.372152.802
23121.342150.803
24119.744147.891
25118.189146.067
26117.000144.497
27115.767142.109
28114.517140.213
29112.999138.011
30111.885135.590
31110.810133.376
32109.426131.129
33108.092129.356
34106.750127.610
35105.568125.214
36104.490123.300
37103.013121.391
38101.595119.611
39100.254118.150
4099.007116.230
4197.998114.374
4296.804112.999
4395.693111.841
4494.706110.252
4593.429108.822
4691.840107.222
4790.693105.771
4889.725103.877
4988.704102.444
5087.827100.894
5187.05099.488
5285.98998.080
5384.86496.433
5483.64494.857
5582.64793.258
5681.73091.319
5780.65790.173
5879.66889.015
5978.69687.743
6077.71686.073
6176.59884.406
6275.50183.188
6374.49482.050
6473.58880.652
6572.63679.564
6671.44678.450
6770.49677.409
6869.43676.050
6968.65474.653
7067.77773.645
7166.76772.266
7265.54271.159
7364.56069.858
7463.51068.693
7562.60167.399
7661.74866.241
7760.58764.975
7859.37363.802
7958.06562.676
8057.13961.195
8155.86659.798
8254.65058.462
8353.37556.939
8451.96255.657
8550.73154.540
8649.46453.028
8748.49251.457
8846.91650.184
8945.52948.645
9043.94146.917
9142.07445.288
9240.50743.341
9338.49741.234
9436.48138.618
9534.58736.702
9632.10034.448
9729.64431.046
9825.58227.980
9921.15624.194


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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