Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty


Return to catchment list
Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile73.95967.401
Median101.802100.894
Mean107.565112.875
75% Quartile134.422146.066
Interquartile Range60.46278.665

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1240.708303.550
2217.440268.148
3208.010254.486
4198.054243.363
5192.033235.192
6185.677223.922
7180.832216.066
8176.549208.771
9172.928201.534
10169.112196.123
11165.878191.648
12163.445186.722
13160.988182.993
14158.109179.263
15155.403175.169
16152.790171.923
17150.229168.137
18148.226164.286
19146.365160.901
20144.356158.236
21142.268155.663
22140.138152.802
23138.067150.803
24136.224147.891
25134.423146.067
26133.011144.497
27131.861142.109
28130.546140.213
29129.214138.011
30127.661135.590
31126.416133.376
32124.973131.129
33123.622129.356
34121.912127.610
35120.852125.214
36119.552123.300
37118.277121.391
38116.556119.611
39114.988118.150
40114.001116.230
41112.832114.374
42111.761112.999
43110.071111.841
44108.843110.252
45107.416108.822
46106.242107.222
47105.058105.771
48103.572103.877
49102.776102.444
50101.802100.894
51100.63799.488
5299.53998.080
5398.40896.433
5497.21894.857
5596.01093.258
5695.08791.319
5793.86390.173
5892.75389.015
5991.75887.743
6090.39786.073
6189.11184.406
6288.05683.188
6386.98582.050
6485.98480.652
6585.00579.564
6683.93378.450
6782.75877.409
6881.90276.050
6980.80874.653
7079.62173.645
7178.50972.266
7277.53071.159
7376.08469.858
7474.96468.693
7573.95867.399
7672.94166.241
7771.83364.975
7870.47763.802
7969.26362.676
8067.63061.195
8166.21959.798
8265.11558.462
8363.67156.939
8462.18655.657
8560.44154.540
8659.21053.028
8757.62651.457
8856.20550.184
8954.32648.645
9052.74346.917
9150.90345.288
9249.13943.341
9346.58341.234
9444.47438.618
9542.22436.702
9639.27834.448
9736.08631.046
9831.72427.980
9926.32524.194


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence