Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty



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Probability distribution for Acheron River at Taggerty ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.53815.474
Median30.87522.976
Mean32.17126.723
75% Quartile37.47433.616
Interquartile Range11.93618.142

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
161.24287.031
255.78971.717
352.15166.439
450.66162.373
548.98259.509
647.63155.720
746.81353.183
845.90750.898
945.17748.696
1044.47747.091
1143.87245.787
1243.29044.378
1342.66743.328
1442.00142.291
1541.53141.169
1641.20240.291
1740.81139.279
1840.35938.263
1940.00637.380
2039.49536.691
2139.12436.032
2238.80035.305
2338.28734.800
2437.93334.070
2537.47833.617
2637.20733.228
2736.84432.640
2836.54532.175
2936.23931.639
3035.95631.053
3135.72330.520
3235.49629.982
3335.24829.559
3434.91229.145
3534.69228.579
3634.48028.129
3734.19027.681
3833.88427.266
3933.63226.926
4033.40326.481
4133.18226.052
4232.92225.736
4332.67925.470
4432.39125.105
4532.11424.778
4631.83724.413
4731.57524.082
4831.34523.652
4931.14423.327
5030.87522.976
5130.65522.658
5230.44422.341
5330.19421.970
5430.01821.615
5529.80921.256
5629.56920.821
5729.36320.564
5829.13420.305
5928.91320.021
6028.69519.647
6128.54519.275
6228.32819.003
6328.14718.749
6427.94818.437
6527.72318.194
6627.53417.945
6727.34617.713
6827.13017.409
6926.94317.097
7026.69316.872
7126.53316.564
7226.31216.316
7326.01116.025
7425.76515.764
7525.53515.474
7625.28215.214
7725.02914.929
7824.75714.665
7924.47814.411
8024.22014.077
8123.97213.761
8223.67513.458
8323.48713.112
8423.19812.819
8522.85412.564
8622.52312.218
8722.20011.857
8821.90011.563
8921.64311.206
9021.22610.805
9120.77510.424
9220.2539.966
9319.8349.466
9419.2308.841
9518.7788.378
9618.1367.828
9717.4156.985
9816.5126.211
9915.0515.231


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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