Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr8.7635.3712.2368.19039.136
Apr-May24.10314.6726.50419.66798.282
Apr-Jun48.17924.81812.55537.703187.612

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1081.367
2062.893
3053.080
4045.247
5039.326
6033.780
7029.221
8024.697
9019.499

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1155.610
2126.626
3116.774
4109.237
5103.957
697.010
792.383
888.236
984.258
1081.367
1179.028
1276.506
1374.632
1472.786
1570.794
1669.238
1767.449
1865.656
1964.102
2062.893
2161.738
2260.466
2359.585
2458.313
2557.523
2656.847
2755.826
2855.021
2954.093
3053.080
3152.161
3251.235
3350.508
3449.797
3548.827
3648.056
3747.292
3846.584
3946.005
4045.247
4144.519
4243.982
4343.530
4442.913
4542.360
4641.743
4741.186
4840.461
4939.915
5039.326
5138.793
5238.261
5337.641
5437.049
5536.451
5635.727
5735.300
5834.870
5934.398
6033.780
6133.165
6232.716
6332.298
6431.784
6531.385
6630.977
6730.596
6830.099
6929.589
7029.221
7128.719
7228.316
7327.843
7427.419
7526.949
7626.528
7726.068
7825.643
7925.234
8024.697
8124.189
8223.705
8323.152
8422.686
8522.280
8621.729
8721.158
8820.693
8920.131
9019.499
9118.902
9218.186
9317.410
9416.440
9515.727
9614.883
9713.599
9812.429
9910.963


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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