Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Sep49.89142.9066.61941.783103.640
Sep-Oct91.18478.02510.56369.824201.440
Sep-Nov120.415100.91513.77191.785299.920

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10204.006202.744
20178.066166.239
30159.147144.723
40143.535126.130
50130.333111.021
60118.34395.840
70105.13382.434
8090.46468.090
9072.74549.944

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1272.443319.465
2253.418278.024
3243.703262.915
4233.534250.935
5226.267242.306
6221.515230.624
7217.406222.619
8212.554215.279
9208.457208.079
10204.006202.744
11200.876198.361
12197.265193.563
13194.564189.948
14191.283186.346
15188.632182.408
16186.033179.295
17183.988175.673
18181.710171.998
19179.598168.774
20178.066166.239
21176.206163.794
22174.575161.076
23172.317159.178
24170.457156.414
25168.307154.682
26166.406153.192
27165.021150.923
28162.874149.122
29161.001147.028
30159.147144.723
31157.029142.613
32155.789140.468
33154.344138.774
34152.804137.102
35151.381134.804
36149.772132.964
37148.172131.125
38146.851129.407
39145.153127.993
40143.535126.130
41141.872124.325
42140.467122.985
43139.113121.853
44137.865120.295
45136.714118.890
46135.388117.314
47134.085115.879
48133.085113.999
49131.833112.570
50130.333111.021
51129.016109.609
52127.540108.190
53126.332106.524
54125.216104.922
55124.058103.289
56122.590101.297
57121.489100.113
58120.29198.912
59119.20297.588
60118.34395.840
61116.92394.083
62115.70192.792
63114.60191.581
64113.47290.084
65111.99688.912
66110.77387.707
67109.53186.575
68107.83885.089
69106.44683.550
70105.13382.434
71103.93180.896
72102.34579.654
73100.90878.184
7499.83476.858
7598.32275.375
7697.03674.037
7795.22172.563
7893.52471.188
7992.13169.856
8090.46468.090
8189.16766.406
8287.35164.781
8385.22362.906
8483.91361.310
8582.32859.907
8680.50657.985
8778.59855.962
8876.80054.301
8974.77252.266
9072.74549.944
9170.05347.717
9267.75245.002
9365.35441.997
9463.13538.155
9559.70635.258
9656.01331.748
9751.83626.217
9846.89220.952
9938.04514.009


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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