Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Oct41.49534.52034.9453.94426.55197.800
Oct-Nov70.96162.21555.9527.15248.338196.280
Oct-Dec90.70085.79870.5989.03365.512264.720

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10103.560161.480
2089.236127.992
3078.874108.543
4070.41392.151
5063.95479.245
6057.63666.759
7051.50756.213
8044.70545.501
9035.76032.905

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.097263.799
2134.447228.939
3128.779215.767
4122.731205.168
5118.459197.455
6114.269186.924
7110.793179.656
8107.977172.962
9105.548166.373
10103.560161.480
11101.710157.455
12100.220153.047
1398.623149.725
1497.028146.415
1595.790142.797
1694.158139.940
1792.787136.619
1891.342133.254
1990.208130.306
2089.236127.992
2188.134125.764
2286.777123.292
2385.851121.568
2484.804119.062
2583.669117.496
2682.492116.151
2781.451114.105
2880.584112.485
2979.577110.606
3078.874108.543
3178.029106.659
3277.101104.751
3376.215103.246
3475.254101.766
3574.39499.737
3673.40598.119
3772.53696.505
3871.95195.003
3971.14193.770
4070.41392.151
4169.76190.587
4269.08989.429
4368.31588.454
4467.72487.116
4567.02885.913
4666.45884.567
4765.81983.347
4865.11781.754
4964.53180.548
5063.95479.245
5163.39778.062
5262.57676.877
5361.94875.492
5461.39774.166
5560.69472.819
5659.90971.186
5759.39970.219
5858.81269.242
5958.25868.169
6057.63666.759
6156.99565.350
6256.39964.320
6355.71163.357
6455.23262.172
6554.62361.249
6654.09660.303
6753.33459.419
6852.69058.263
6952.08357.072
7051.50756.213
7150.88155.035
7250.17454.088
7349.49852.974
7448.80351.975
7548.24550.863
7647.57549.865
7746.82948.773
7846.13547.760
7945.44246.785
8044.70545.501
8143.79344.285
8243.04243.121
8342.24941.788
8441.49840.664
8540.85039.681
8639.95138.347
8739.15236.957
8838.21935.826
8937.17334.453
9035.76032.905
9134.80131.438
9233.44629.676
9332.10027.755
9430.89025.350
9529.43223.574
9628.00121.465
9725.74818.241
9823.11915.286
9920.07311.564


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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