Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1957) (GL)
Jan12.46011.5457.7141.70610.20852.790
Jan-Feb20.82821.27213.2542.56318.47293.160
Jan-Mar28.14534.85619.5354.39026.100110.587

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.26547.091
2027.73036.691
3025.07631.053
4023.22226.481
5021.47322.976
6019.91619.647
7018.46016.872
8016.63414.077
9014.45110.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.51887.031
239.14071.717
337.10466.439
435.73362.373
534.65959.509
633.66655.720
732.84753.183
832.30650.898
931.80148.696
1031.26547.091
1130.85545.787
1230.27344.378
1329.84743.328
1429.51542.291
1529.14041.169
1628.81740.291
1728.47239.279
1828.24438.263
1928.03237.380
2027.73036.691
2127.48636.032
2227.16835.305
2326.85034.800
2426.55834.070
2526.27033.617
2625.94433.228
2725.72832.640
2825.49432.175
2925.30531.639
3025.07631.053
3124.85530.520
3224.66129.982
3324.50229.559
3424.30229.145
3524.12928.579
3623.96528.129
3723.71627.681
3823.57527.266
3923.38326.926
4023.22226.481
4123.07526.052
4222.88725.736
4322.70325.470
4422.52125.105
4522.35424.778
4622.16224.413
4721.95424.082
4821.78723.652
4921.63223.327
5021.47322.976
5121.28622.658
5221.10422.341
5320.90821.970
5420.73721.615
5520.60721.256
5620.50020.821
5720.34320.564
5820.20420.305
5920.05420.021
6019.91619.647
6119.76019.275
6219.62919.003
6319.50718.749
6419.35518.437
6519.18218.194
6619.05517.945
6718.91117.713
6818.75917.409
6918.62717.097
7018.46016.872
7118.27816.564
7218.10916.316
7317.94416.025
7417.76315.764
7517.55115.474
7617.35415.214
7717.16514.929
7817.02014.665
7916.85014.411
8016.63414.077
8116.45413.761
8216.23613.458
8316.05913.112
8415.89212.819
8515.64312.564
8615.39912.218
8715.14011.857
8814.92111.563
8914.72511.206
9014.45110.805
9114.18510.424
9213.9099.966
9313.4849.466
9413.1178.841
9512.6498.378
9612.2217.828
9711.7686.985
9811.0856.211
999.9365.231


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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