Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Feb8.3689.7275.5390.8588.26429.678
Feb-Mar15.68523.31111.8202.68415.89149.968
Feb-Apr24.50231.70817.1914.48924.03575.492

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.81740.063
2021.83231.589
3019.86326.962
4018.30423.191
5016.88520.286
6015.71317.514
7014.46215.193
8013.04112.842
9011.31810.073

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.41872.119
231.16059.903
329.25955.674
428.34352.408
527.53650.103
626.95747.048
726.25544.998
825.60443.150
925.22441.366
1024.81740.063
1124.46639.005
1224.14837.859
1323.74637.005
1423.44236.161
1523.12835.247
1622.79034.530
1722.56033.704
1822.27332.874
1922.03732.152
2021.83231.589
2121.64131.049
2221.43130.453
2321.20230.040
2420.97229.441
2520.77629.069
2620.59328.750
2720.38828.267
2820.21427.885
2920.05827.444
3019.86326.962
3119.69826.523
3219.54826.080
3319.40125.732
3419.23925.391
3519.04324.924
3618.91524.552
3718.76124.183
3818.59123.840
3918.42923.559
4018.30423.191
4118.14522.837
4218.01922.574
4317.87022.354
4417.74322.052
4517.57521.781
4617.42821.478
4717.30021.204
4817.18220.847
4917.03520.577
5016.88520.286
5116.77520.022
5216.61119.758
5316.48419.449
5416.37319.155
5516.25718.856
5616.15718.493
5716.04518.279
5815.92818.063
5915.80217.826
6015.71317.514
6115.57617.203
6215.43416.976
6315.32416.764
6415.16216.503
6515.05116.300
6614.94416.092
6714.84815.897
6814.74015.643
6914.61015.381
7014.46215.193
7114.33914.934
7214.21214.726
7314.06314.482
7413.93314.262
7513.81114.018
7613.66813.800
7713.51613.560
7813.36113.338
7913.20213.124
8013.04112.842
8112.90912.576
8212.72412.320
8312.56312.028
8412.37311.781
8512.15011.565
8612.03711.272
8711.89510.966
8811.73210.717
8911.53010.415
9011.31810.073
9111.0419.750
9210.7929.360
9310.5618.935
9410.2138.401
959.8218.005
969.3867.534
979.0386.811
988.5206.145
997.6545.299


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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