Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar7.31713.5836.2812.0797.62817.545
Mar-Apr16.13421.98011.6514.31515.77256.681
Mar-May31.57036.05720.9538.58327.039115.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.52251.300
2033.12140.398
3029.42634.515
4026.03229.763
5023.53326.132
6021.21722.695
7018.88519.839
8016.37216.972
9013.35713.631

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.43393.620
254.28877.325
350.94071.727
448.44567.421
546.16564.392
644.22160.390
742.73657.713
841.66255.306
940.58152.989
1039.52251.300
1138.86649.931
1237.94548.450
1337.20347.348
1436.57846.261
1536.02945.085
1635.35444.165
1734.74343.105
1834.17042.041
1933.63541.117
2033.12140.398
2132.68339.709
2232.17738.949
2331.81538.422
2431.49537.661
2531.09437.187
2630.77936.782
2730.44236.168
2830.03535.684
2929.69235.126
3029.42634.515
3129.01633.960
3228.69933.400
3328.24432.961
3427.92332.530
3527.58731.941
3627.34331.474
3726.96931.009
3826.63830.578
3926.29630.225
4026.03229.763
4125.76329.318
4225.45628.990
4325.16128.714
4424.92428.336
4524.70027.997
4624.51127.619
4724.24827.277
4823.99426.831
4923.76426.495
5023.53326.132
5123.27325.803
5223.03825.475
5322.75425.091
5422.51224.725
5522.24824.354
5622.05223.906
5721.87323.641
5821.64823.373
5921.43123.080
6021.21722.695
6120.94322.311
6220.70222.031
6320.50621.769
6420.32621.448
6520.11721.198
6619.89320.942
6719.61320.703
6819.35720.391
6919.12620.070
7018.88519.839
7118.64219.522
7218.42119.268
7318.14518.969
7417.89018.701
7517.65318.403
7617.47618.136
7717.14117.845
7816.86517.574
7916.60317.314
8016.37216.972
8116.08916.648
8215.79816.339
8315.52115.985
8415.26315.686
8514.92015.425
8614.59215.072
8714.36714.703
8814.06414.404
8913.70814.040
9013.35713.631
9112.97413.243
9212.60512.777
9312.22612.270
9411.79611.635
9511.29411.166
9610.66210.609
979.9029.757
989.1218.976
997.8917.990


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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