Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul38.64959.68821.1259.21332.739108.970
Jul-Aug91.037118.20474.06218.55674.229220.790
Jul-Sep141.038170.178116.96825.176117.188324.430

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10174.044227.930
20149.466192.835
30132.209170.228
40118.565149.541
50106.248132.034
6094.266114.000
7083.12297.951
8069.67381.027
9053.34160.757

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1242.230318.071
2220.179289.275
3209.341277.984
4201.242268.696
5195.116261.810
6189.202252.214
7184.851245.447
8181.511239.099
9177.558232.736
10174.044227.930
11170.239223.923
12166.690219.473
13164.194216.078
14162.267212.656
15160.447208.870
16158.066205.845
17155.932202.289
18154.070198.639
19151.719195.402
20149.466192.835
21147.615190.339
22145.887187.544
23144.069185.577
24141.832182.693
25140.249180.874
26138.576179.301
27137.017176.893
28135.071174.969
29133.533172.720
30132.209170.228
31130.336167.933
32129.052165.586
33127.522163.721
34126.246161.873
35124.572159.320
36123.583157.264
37122.311155.198
38121.186153.260
39119.673151.659
40118.565149.541
41117.111147.480
42115.948145.943
43114.639144.642
44113.479142.846
45112.095141.221
46110.846139.391
47109.647137.722
48108.431135.527
49107.586133.854
50106.248132.034
51104.970130.372
52103.726128.698
53102.446126.727
54101.180124.829
5599.771122.888
5698.662120.517
5797.479119.106
5896.595117.673
5995.447116.091
6094.266114.000
6193.351111.897
6292.203110.351
6390.862108.900
6489.959107.106
6588.558105.702
6687.335104.258
6786.155102.903
6885.326101.125
6984.25799.284
7083.12297.951
7181.66796.117
7280.33294.637
7378.78392.890
7477.61391.318
7576.23989.562
7674.79787.983
7773.69986.249
7872.64984.637
7971.12883.081
8069.67381.027
8167.97679.078
8266.32077.208
8364.86775.065
8463.53873.254
8562.43171.671
8660.95669.520
8759.25267.278
8857.44065.455
8955.42263.245
9053.34160.757
9151.32858.406
9249.10055.590
9346.61052.540
9444.03848.751
9541.86645.980
9638.82542.727
9735.53237.843
9830.47533.483
9923.87428.179


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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