Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Aug52.38858.51652.9379.34341.490111.820
Aug-Sep102.389110.49095.84315.96284.449215.460
Aug-Oct143.780145.435130.96219.906112.968313.260

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10205.008231.184
20182.358197.823
30164.648176.004
40150.259155.682
50137.428138.111
60125.291119.538
70112.182102.510
8096.33783.978
9078.85061.088

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1267.029315.619
2253.467288.748
3243.200278.193
4233.817269.501
5226.582263.049
6221.870254.047
7216.757247.689
8213.096241.716
9209.209235.720
10205.008231.184
11202.413227.397
12199.323223.187
13196.640219.969
14194.234216.723
15192.021213.126
16189.606210.248
17187.625206.860
18185.770203.376
19184.218200.282
20182.358197.823
21180.340195.430
22178.247192.745
23176.621190.854
24175.029188.076
25173.401186.321
26172.024184.802
27170.367182.472
28168.080180.609
29166.367178.426
30164.648176.004
31162.846173.769
32161.746171.479
33160.229169.655
34158.338167.845
35157.157165.339
36155.614163.317
37154.511161.281
38153.054159.367
39151.659157.782
40150.259155.682
41148.805153.633
42147.332152.102
43146.257150.804
44144.774149.009
45143.492147.381
46142.384145.544
47140.939143.864
48139.895141.649
49138.557139.957
50137.428138.111
51136.246136.421
52134.920134.715
53133.709132.701
54132.669130.755
55131.374128.760
56130.019126.313
57128.922124.853
58127.643123.365
59126.401121.720
60125.291119.538
61123.944117.335
62122.672115.711
63121.143114.181
64119.723112.286
65118.733110.797
66117.682109.263
67116.552107.819
68115.109105.918
69113.756103.944
70112.182102.510
71110.882100.530
72109.47698.928
73108.10297.031
74106.82795.318
75105.07993.399
76103.51091.667
77101.88589.760
7899.81187.981
7997.97386.259
8096.33783.978
8195.05181.807
8293.48779.716
8391.43277.312
8489.97375.274
8588.27473.489
8686.27071.057
8784.58068.515
8882.43666.443
8980.78163.926
9078.85061.088
9176.77258.402
9274.18355.184
9372.20451.699
9468.39347.378
9565.96744.229
9661.78240.551
9756.63035.083
9850.48130.278
9942.62624.568


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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