Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Sep50.00251.97442.9066.61942.959103.640
Sep-Oct91.39386.91878.02510.56371.477201.440
Sep-Nov120.725107.925100.91513.77194.430299.920

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10179.834202.744
20155.691166.239
30138.754144.723
40124.467126.130
50112.012111.021
60100.95295.840
7089.50482.434
8076.31368.090
9060.84149.944

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1247.133319.465
2226.525278.024
3216.471262.915
4208.148250.935
5201.793242.306
6196.947230.624
7191.348222.619
8187.988215.279
9183.645208.079
10179.834202.744
11175.987198.361
12173.144193.563
13171.170189.948
14168.754186.346
15166.517182.408
16163.778179.295
17161.621175.673
18159.620171.998
19157.761168.774
20155.691166.239
21153.367163.794
22151.351161.076
23149.525159.178
24148.325156.414
25146.569154.682
26144.803153.192
27143.312150.923
28141.964149.122
29140.574147.028
30138.754144.723
31137.117142.613
32135.588140.468
33134.030138.774
34132.235137.102
35131.005134.804
36129.839132.964
37128.130131.125
38126.713129.407
39125.787127.993
40124.467126.130
41123.384124.325
42122.199122.985
43120.713121.853
44119.285120.295
45117.821118.890
46116.596117.314
47115.302115.879
48114.127113.999
49113.156112.570
50112.012111.021
51110.898109.609
52109.896108.190
53108.885106.524
54107.737104.922
55106.620103.289
56105.648101.297
57104.381100.113
58103.41198.912
59102.08197.588
60100.95295.840
6199.99094.083
6298.65692.792
6397.60291.581
6496.52790.084
6595.46588.912
6694.27887.707
6793.03686.575
6891.82685.089
6990.61783.550
7089.50482.434
7188.24280.896
7286.66879.654
7385.32178.184
7484.23876.858
7583.05175.375
7682.06574.037
7780.94872.563
7879.31971.188
7977.72069.856
8076.31368.090
8174.53566.406
8272.90864.781
8371.28962.906
8469.66561.310
8568.18459.907
8666.62257.985
8765.32255.962
8863.57854.301
8962.29552.266
9060.84149.944
9159.17747.717
9256.86345.002
9354.35541.997
9451.78438.155
9549.24535.258
9645.90031.748
9742.48026.217
9837.88820.952
9929.96014.009


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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