Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Dec19.65814.64719.5961.88217.81968.440
Dec-Jan32.05022.36129.6183.58828.227121.230
Dec-Feb40.35527.90035.0834.44536.668161.600

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1047.84772.260
2041.37055.355
3037.02146.306
4033.71239.042
5030.68433.521
6027.94528.324
7025.35624.029
8022.48119.742
9018.90414.784

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.068139.062
262.791113.155
359.137104.304
456.74797.515
554.06392.750
652.59886.467
751.47182.274
850.20978.509
948.90474.892
1047.84772.260
1146.95770.128
1246.09367.826
1345.42866.114
1444.85864.426
1544.20862.603
1643.76761.178
1743.08759.538
1842.37757.893
1941.81356.466
2041.37055.355
2140.92354.292
2240.37753.122
2339.90652.310
2439.39251.138
2538.95950.410
2638.59149.787
2738.22648.844
2837.80648.101
2937.40547.243
3037.02146.306
3136.61845.456
3236.29944.599
3335.92043.926
3435.55043.266
3535.21142.366
3634.95341.652
3734.66240.943
3834.37940.284
3934.05339.746
4033.71239.042
4133.38038.364
4233.16437.864
4332.79937.444
4432.45136.869
4532.13936.353
4631.90735.778
4731.61235.258
4831.25934.582
4930.99734.071
5030.68433.521
5130.46033.023
5230.22832.525
5329.95131.945
5429.64031.391
5529.41530.830
5629.08130.151
5728.79329.751
5828.49229.347
5928.23128.904
6027.94528.324
6127.73927.745
6227.45927.323
6327.16626.929
6426.88826.446
6526.66726.069
6626.42425.685
6726.08425.326
6825.86724.857
6925.63124.376
7025.35624.029
7125.07023.554
7224.80023.173
7324.57222.725
7424.38522.324
7524.13121.879
7623.81721.480
7723.45621.044
7823.12720.641
7922.78520.253
8022.48119.742
8122.22419.260
8221.94118.799
8321.61018.272
8421.29617.829
8520.94717.442
8620.46816.917
8720.07816.370
8819.74015.927
8919.36015.389
9018.90414.784
9118.44414.211
9217.99313.524
9317.55812.777
9416.99811.844
9516.31311.156
9615.65410.341
9714.6679.096
9813.6537.959
9911.7786.529


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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