Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Product list for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1957) (GL)
Jan12.3867.71410.0221.70610.40852.790
Jan-Feb20.71013.25415.4872.56318.85093.160
Jan-Mar28.01119.53521.0594.39026.644110.587

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.72447.091
2034.40636.691
3031.22731.053
4028.92326.481
5026.75822.976
6024.84019.647
7023.12316.872
8020.90114.077
9018.26810.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
153.69887.031
248.50371.717
345.61666.439
444.09262.373
542.63659.509
641.52955.720
740.64253.183
839.89550.898
939.25148.696
1038.72447.091
1138.18145.787
1237.60344.378
1337.06643.328
1436.55942.291
1536.10041.169
1635.73540.291
1735.40239.279
1835.08738.263
1934.76337.380
2034.40636.691
2134.01736.032
2233.70735.305
2333.32134.800
2432.88234.070
2532.60733.617
2632.26133.228
2731.97032.640
2831.67532.175
2931.47431.639
3031.22731.053
3130.96330.520
3230.74829.982
3330.50729.559
3430.25529.145
3530.02928.579
3629.81428.129
3729.57827.681
3829.36327.266
3929.16226.926
4028.92326.481
4128.72226.052
4228.54025.736
4328.29725.470
4428.09125.105
4527.87424.778
4627.58324.413
4727.36524.082
4827.13623.652
4926.93123.327
5026.75822.976
5126.56622.658
5226.30522.341
5326.14221.970
5425.96821.615
5525.79221.256
5625.54620.821
5725.40620.564
5825.22320.305
5925.03520.021
6024.84019.647
6124.67619.275
6224.53019.003
6324.37218.749
6424.22318.437
6523.99418.194
6623.81717.945
6723.63217.713
6823.45917.409
6923.28017.097
7023.12316.872
7122.92216.564
7222.69816.316
7322.47416.025
7422.24415.764
7522.01015.474
7621.83315.214
7721.58214.929
7821.39014.665
7921.12214.411
8020.90114.077
8120.71913.761
8220.44613.458
8320.23113.112
8419.99012.819
8519.70912.564
8619.39512.218
8719.11511.857
8818.85711.563
8918.60011.206
9018.26810.805
9117.90810.424
9217.4769.966
9317.0639.466
9416.5138.841
9516.1248.378
9615.5187.828
9714.9236.985
9814.1426.211
9912.8725.231


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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