Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar7.3016.2815.5722.0797.79417.545
Mar-Apr16.06411.65112.8534.31515.98456.681
Mar-May31.40420.95324.4948.58327.461115.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.82251.300
2035.86840.398
3031.89034.515
4028.23029.763
5025.55626.132
6023.05822.695
7020.59119.839
8017.83316.972
9014.60313.631

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.11093.620
258.59077.325
355.01771.727
452.44567.421
549.76864.392
647.86960.390
746.17757.713
844.95155.306
943.92752.989
1042.82251.300
1142.01449.931
1241.11848.450
1340.23847.348
1439.58346.261
1538.98745.085
1638.32944.165
1737.65343.105
1836.94342.041
1936.36341.117
2035.86840.398
2135.42539.709
2234.95438.949
2334.53838.422
2434.11737.661
2533.76637.187
2633.33036.782
2732.90136.168
2832.57835.684
2932.22535.126
3031.89034.515
3131.45733.960
3231.11733.400
3330.62732.961
3430.31432.530
3529.94331.941
3629.66431.474
3729.26631.009
3828.93630.578
3928.52230.225
4028.23029.763
4127.97529.318
4227.61828.990
4327.33228.714
4427.07728.336
4526.84227.997
4626.59627.619
4726.34627.277
4826.11826.831
4925.84426.495
5025.55626.132
5125.27425.803
5225.03625.475
5324.72025.091
5424.45024.725
5524.20324.354
5623.98023.906
5723.77323.641
5823.56623.373
5923.33623.080
6023.05822.695
6122.79222.311
6222.54522.031
6322.33621.769
6422.09021.448
6521.90021.198
6621.66020.942
6721.39620.703
6821.09320.391
6920.83720.070
7020.59119.839
7120.33519.522
7220.06219.268
7319.77018.969
7419.47318.701
7519.27118.403
7619.03118.136
7718.70417.845
7818.39917.574
7918.09517.314
8017.83316.972
8117.48816.648
8217.22916.339
8316.94015.985
8416.63815.686
8516.31015.425
8615.97815.072
8715.64014.703
8815.40314.404
8914.97814.040
9014.60313.631
9114.16613.243
9213.83112.777
9313.40912.270
9412.93611.635
9512.41011.166
9611.66410.609
9710.8319.757
9810.0158.976
998.7217.990


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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