Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May15.3409.30111.6415.31111.47759.146
May-Jun39.41619.44735.82111.23829.513148.476
May-Jul77.79140.572104.96118.91861.346257.446

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10119.168135.501
2099.094103.579
3085.34586.737
4075.03273.378
5065.78763.343
6057.64754.005
7050.37046.381
8042.40038.870
9033.02130.326

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1185.053264.164
2165.303214.093
3155.332196.996
4146.845183.900
5140.020174.724
6135.020162.653
7130.842154.615
8126.425147.415
9122.599140.513
10119.168135.501
11116.038131.448
12113.630127.080
13111.240123.837
14109.200120.646
15107.035117.202
16105.504114.515
17103.332111.428
18101.865108.337
19100.326105.660
2099.094103.579
2197.410101.591
2296.01999.403
2394.56197.889
2493.06795.705
2591.73294.349
2690.44893.190
2788.95791.439
2887.65290.060
2986.50588.471
3085.34586.737
3184.26785.165
3283.33783.582
3382.36082.342
3481.15381.127
3580.30379.472
3679.20078.159
3778.20076.858
3877.05875.651
3976.14574.666
4075.03273.378
4173.75472.140
4272.98371.228
4371.98070.462
4471.12669.415
4570.30468.477
4669.22367.433
4768.41766.489
4867.44465.262
4966.62864.338
5065.78763.343
5165.04762.443
5264.06861.545
5363.19760.499
5462.45359.502
5561.79058.493
5660.89857.275
5760.06356.558
5859.28955.834
5958.35055.042
6057.64754.005
6156.91252.973
6256.29352.221
6355.66351.520
6454.92150.660
6554.14449.992
6653.53749.310
6752.80348.674
6852.04847.845
6951.16846.993
7050.37046.381
7149.45345.544
7248.89244.873
7348.08944.086
7447.28943.382
7546.58642.601
7645.60441.903
7744.71341.140
7843.95440.435
7943.32839.759
8042.40038.870
8141.49838.032
8240.61737.232
8339.65536.320
8438.88435.553
8538.04334.885
8637.19133.980
8736.00033.041
8835.02732.280
8933.97331.360
9033.02130.326
9131.90529.351
9230.55328.185
9328.82726.921
9427.82025.349
9526.11424.195
9624.53022.833
9722.14120.767
9819.65918.894
9915.76116.560


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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