Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty


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Historical and exceedance probability for Acheron River at Taggerty ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1957) (GL)
Jan12.12912.00333.6051.7067.64852.790
Jan-Feb20.12520.54163.2832.56313.31693.160
Jan-Mar27.12633.94683.5734.39018.813110.587

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1093.65547.091
2083.63036.691
3077.12131.053
4071.71726.481
5066.55622.976
6062.02219.647
7057.72116.872
8052.79414.077
9046.13610.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1126.22187.031
2117.57371.717
3110.09666.439
4106.29562.373
5103.14359.509
6100.79755.720
798.58953.183
897.00150.898
995.26848.696
1093.65547.091
1192.65945.787
1291.38544.378
1390.07743.328
1488.91542.291
1587.96641.169
1687.01240.291
1786.15139.279
1885.34738.263
1984.46037.380
2083.63036.691
2182.81036.032
2282.15335.305
2381.49234.800
2480.73334.070
2580.05933.617
2679.49233.228
2778.95632.640
2878.46132.175
2977.69931.639
3077.12131.053
3176.54430.520
3275.91029.982
3375.40229.559
3474.84629.145
3574.36628.579
3673.80128.129
3773.25627.681
3872.67527.266
3972.20626.926
4071.71726.481
4171.06226.052
4270.53725.736
4370.07825.470
4469.68525.105
4569.14424.778
4668.51824.413
4768.08224.082
4867.72923.652
4967.16223.327
5066.55622.976
5166.04422.658
5265.60522.341
5365.15221.970
5464.69121.615
5564.28021.256
5663.86420.821
5763.38420.564
5862.94920.305
5962.52920.021
6062.02219.647
6161.63319.275
6261.30319.003
6360.86918.749
6460.50518.437
6560.00418.194
6659.60317.945
6759.17817.713
6858.65417.409
6958.06517.097
7057.72116.872
7157.31916.564
7256.79716.316
7356.34616.025
7455.89215.764
7555.36915.474
7654.87715.214
7754.29514.929
7853.82714.665
7953.37914.411
8052.79414.077
8152.16613.761
8251.57713.458
8350.92913.112
8450.39412.819
8549.84812.564
8649.21012.218
8748.55111.857
8847.73611.563
8947.02511.206
9046.13610.805
9145.34110.424
9244.5029.966
9343.5499.466
9442.4798.841
9541.4558.378
9640.3517.828
9738.7036.985
9836.6366.211
9934.0305.231


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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