Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.94818.241
209.33913.329
307.87110.809
406.7188.850
505.8127.405
605.0366.083
704.3075.022
803.5443.994
902.6582.852

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.31939.585
218.32230.996
316.64428.146
415.66225.990
514.46324.495
613.70822.546
713.22021.260
812.74720.116
912.36819.027
1011.94818.241
1111.56317.608
1211.28916.929
1310.97816.427
1410.63115.934
1510.37615.404
1610.16814.992
179.93514.521
189.75414.050
199.52213.644
209.33913.329
219.12913.029
228.93912.699
238.80512.472
248.62912.144
258.52511.941
268.40311.768
278.26611.507
288.15411.302
298.02111.066
307.87110.809
317.74810.577
327.62710.343
337.49510.160
347.3819.982
357.2709.739
367.1649.547
377.0519.357
386.9429.181
396.8149.038
406.7188.850
416.6308.671
426.5178.539
436.4368.428
446.3548.277
456.2568.142
466.1597.991
476.0627.856
485.9857.680
495.8857.547
505.8127.405
515.7397.277
525.6657.149
535.5857.000
545.4926.858
555.4086.716
565.3266.543
575.2516.442
585.1566.340
595.1066.229
605.0366.083
614.9525.938
624.8665.833
634.8135.735
644.7165.615
654.6415.522
664.5625.427
674.4905.339
684.4335.224
694.3805.106
704.3075.022
714.2384.906
724.1554.814
734.0674.706
743.9814.609
753.9224.502
763.8354.407
773.7584.303
783.6824.207
793.6074.115
803.5443.994
813.4743.881
823.3833.773
833.2983.650
843.2123.547
853.1323.458
863.0443.337
872.9183.212
882.8173.110
892.7392.988
902.6582.852
912.5302.723
922.4352.570
932.2922.405
942.1562.201
952.0122.052
961.8551.877
971.6901.614
981.4571.378
991.1001.087


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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